The betting moves to Hillary following post convention polling boosts
The WH2016 betting moves Clinton's way following the spate of good post convention polls pic.twitter.com/uPZD8WkUSd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2016
Owen Smith’s big hope is with members who joined before GE2015
The post-GE2015 entryists are mostly Corbyn’s > Up to 50,000 'registered supporter' applicants for Labour leader election blocked or in doubt https://t.co/4MFY7eT2js — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2016 The overnight HuffPost article linked to in the Tweet above suggests that the £25 sign-ups have been trimmed down by about 50k which means there’ll be about 130k-135k actual participants in the election. Of those it’s estimated that about 65% are for Corbyn which is markedly down on the 84% vote…
Diane James becomes new favourite for the UKIP leadership following more revelations about Steven Woofe
Diane James now favourite to be Farage's successor at UKIP following latest revelation about Steveb Woolfe pic.twitter.com/Bjs7OuvCy2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2016 Ukip's Steven Woolfe admits breaching electoral law by forgetting drink-drive charge in 2012 https://t.co/UhxhO9clq1 via @HuffPostUKPol — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2016 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/760142701140512768 Diane James came to prominence in the February 2013 Eastleigh by-election when UKIP achieved a very creditable second place behind the LDs. If she does get elected then UKIP would join the…
Owen: Lay off Jeremy. Challenge Theresa May
Donald Brind with his advice for the LAB challenger He may have used some dodgy language – “smashing” a woman back on her heels is beyond ugly at a time when misogyny is rife in politics – but I was cheered by Owen Smith’s desire to take on Theresa May. Ousting the Tory Prime Minister is – or at least ought to be – the key test for a Labour leader. So far Smith has been defining himself against Jeremy…
Why at a 12% chance Owen Smith is now the value LAB leadership bet
Betfair 0400 Aug 1 2016 The race is tighter than that All betting is about making assessments of value. How does the price being offered on an outcome equate to your assessment of that actually happening? If there is a mismatch then you have have value bet. So in writing this post I’m not making a prediction just stating where I think the betting value lies. There is very little data on the LAB leadership race and what is available, I’d…
A hundred days to go until the 2016 White House election on November 8th
James Burt (The White Rabbit) looks at where we are There are now less than one hundred days to go before America goes to the polls in the 2016 Presidential race. If a week is a long time in politics, then three months is enough for some pretty big shifts in popular opinion. However the party conventions have given an indication of what Clinton and Trump will be trying to do in to do in that time. The most sustained…
According to Michael Crick Steven Woolfe has failed to get on the UKIP ballot
I hear Steven Woolfe has failed to be nominated for leader of Ukip. His form came in 20 minutes late, I'm told. — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) July 31, 2016 This’ll will turn the betting on its head On seeing Crick’s Tweet I managed to lay as much was was available on Betfair. If this is indeed the case I’m £666 up on the afternoon. When the Crick Tweet came out Woolfe was a 72% chance on Betfair. Big question now…
Odds-on UKIP leadership favourite, Steven Woolfe, should know today whether or not he’ll be allowed on the ballot
The Moss Side born barrister looks well placed build on UKIP’s strengths in LAB’s Northern heartlands Steven Woolfe MEP is the red hot odds on favourite to become UKIP leader in succession to Nigel Farage who stood down after the referendum. He’s said to have the backing of Arron Banks. He’s articulate, telegenic and an effective communicator on TV. Unlike Farage who is very much of the South East, Woolfe is from the north West where the party has had…