Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

Gary Johnson could be the WH2016 king-maker

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For Hillary and Donald, the fringe candidates matter US presidential elections are always two-horse races. No candidate from any party other than the Republicans or Democrats has won the White House in over 150 years (which is to say, not since the Republicans became a major force), and nor has any even come close. Even Roosevelt in 1912 – by a huge distance the most successful third-party candidate in that time – fell a very long way short of defeating…

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LAB leadership round-up on the afternoon the Appeal Court said the new members could NOT vote

LAB leadership round-up on the afternoon the Appeal Court said the new members could NOT vote

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Labour CAN Ban 130,000 Members From Voting In Leadership Contest, Rules Court of Appeal https://t.co/2t3oQZPM73 — Owen Bennett (@owenjbennett) August 12, 2016 Owen Smith now 13% chance on Betfair. After initial court ruling he was at 6% pic.twitter.com/fQ5sd6Ci76 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2016 https://twitter.com/jimwaterson/status/764109997223448576 David Cowling's analysis. How different LAB leaders were doing in polls 10 months in. pic.twitter.com/NwhCYyOtFg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2016

This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

This week’s by-elections. SNP and LAB both win and lose a seat from each other

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,164 (37% unchanged), Labour 1,029 (33% -7%), Conservative 639 (21% +9%), Socialist Labour Party 131 (4% +3%), Green Party 94 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrat 48 (2% -3%) SNP lead of 135 (4%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lab to SNP Labour GAIN from SNP on the sixth count Renfrew South and Gallowhill (Lab defence) on Renfrewshire First Preference Votes: Scottish National Party 1,309…

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Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college

Just focusing on states where Hillary Clinton has 10%+ poll leads she’s only 7 seats short in the electoral college

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PoliticalWire How things have changed dramatically in just three weeks from the conventions With so much going on in the Labour party battle the fight for the White House has got sidelined. Things have moved very sharply away from Trump since the conventions and the challenge he now faces is enormous. As we all know this is about separate state battles and not the overall aggregate vote shares and the above map on the excellent Political Wire site shows the…

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Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

Tonight’s Local By-Elections : Previewed by Harry Hayfield

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Irvine West (SNP defence) on North Ayrshire Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 12, Labour 11, Independents 6, Conservative 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 4) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected Labour 691, 1,374 E (40%) Scottish National Party 1,624, 265 (37%) Conservatives 614 (12%) Liberal Democrats 246 (5%) Independent 4% Socialist Labour Party 81 (1%) Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 51 (1%) Referendum Result: REMAIN 38,394 (57%) LEAVE 29,110…

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LAB only 7% behind according to YouGov but another, from TNS, has the gap at 13%

LAB only 7% behind according to YouGov but another, from TNS, has the gap at 13%

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And more dreadful rating numbers for the embattled LAB leader With the ballots due to go out in the LAB leadership contest in two and a bit weeks every new poll is going to be looked at in the context of its impact on the race. The main case against Mr. Corbyn is that outside his group of wildly enthusiastic supporters he looks like an election loser. If the party is to have any chance at all, his detractors argue,…

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Don Brind sticks his neck out and argues that the leadership race is now “too close to call”

Don Brind sticks his neck out and argues that the leadership race is now “too close to call”

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Corbyn could be heading for a shock There’s an unmistakeable mood of triumphalism in the Corbyn camp after their victory in the High court over allowing all new members to use their vote and a slew of results which have been widely interpreted as showing Jeremy Corbyn really does have momentum. I believe the contest is very tight and that Owen Smith has a very good chance of victory. I’m undoubtedly sticking my neck out because I’m at odds with…

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Looking back at BREXIT, the implications for Scotland and, of course, the LAB leadership – all in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Looking back at BREXIT, the implications for Scotland and, of course, the LAB leadership – all in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

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Getting to the heart of the issues Keiran Pedley was joined by Julia Rampen from the New Statesman and Leo Barasi and discussed polling around support for Scottish Independence post Brexit, Labour splitting and some interesting polling from GQR around the causes of Brexit, roll of immigration and what happens next. Julia also gave her insight into Scottish politics and the latest on the Labour Leadership race in the aftermath of the GMB endorsement of Owen Smith. The audio podcast…

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