The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after convincing first debate performance

The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after convincing first debate performance

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On Betfair it is now Clinton 68% Trump 30% Well over £3m was traded on Betfair as the market moves back to Hillary Clinton following a confident first debate performance against Donald Trump. This is how Taegan Goddard of Political Wire summed up the night’s event: “. Clinton was particularly effective when needling him on not releasing his tax returns, saying, “Why won’t he release his tax returns? Maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is.” Trump couldn’t…

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The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winners: Alex Bolton and John Loony get closest

The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winners: Alex Bolton and John Loony get closest

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This was the election result. Eligible voters: 654,006 Votes cast: 506,438 Spoilt ballots: 1,042 Corbyn: 313,209 – 61.85% Smith: 193,229 – 38.15% Margin: 23.70% Alex Bolton and John Loony will win in addition to the bragging rights copies of what’s set to be the political best seller of 2016 which has just been published. This is the follow up to the 2015 hit “Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box” called imaginatively “More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box”. It is…

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Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be turned on its head

Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be turned on its head

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In previous White House Races the first debate has been seen as a sort of official start to hostilities. This is said to be the point when voters start to get engaged. This time that is much less so because public interest in the fight to succeed Obama has been far higher than anything we’ve seen before. The fight for the GOP nomination saw the biggest TV debate audiences ever and records are expected to be broken overnight. The reason…

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Joff Wild says the key to a Labour moderate fightback is understanding the Corbyn tribes

Joff Wild says the key to a Labour moderate fightback is understanding the Corbyn tribes

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Just because you know something bad is going to happen does not make it less painful when it does. Since the day that the Labour leadership contest was announced I had been pretty sure that Jeremy Corbyn would win again. I knew with absolute certainty that it would be so one Sunday in late August when I went – nervous, but excited – to an Owen Smith phone bank in the upstairs room of a pub around the corner from…

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The betting market that reflects the mess Labour finds itself in

The betting market that reflects the mess Labour finds itself in

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2031 onwards is the favourite for when Labour will next form a majority government. Sometimes a betting market beautifully captures the political zeitgeist, and this market from William Hill eloquently expresses Labour’s current predicament with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, it’s not so much Labour are up a certain creek without a paddle, Labour are up that creek sans a canoe too. If I were forced to choose, I’d go for the 2031 onwards option, but I’m loathe to place bets for time periods…

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