What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

What happened when Guido got into an after dinner discussion with Nigel Farage and Arron Banks on who’ll be President

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So dinner; PM said she'd have Boris put down like a dog, Craig Oliver made her retch, bet @Arron_banks & @Nigel_Farage £20,000. G'night. pic.twitter.com/yliVFOUwnn — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) November 3, 2016 The agreed odds suggest he’s got a betting bargain Last night there were the Spectator Parliamentary Awards which, judging by the Tweets, turned out to quite an occasion with a series of extraordinary comments by amongst others Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. These will be fully covered…

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Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

Clinton drops 32 on the Electoral College Votes spread betting markets

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As regulars will know I like spread betting where the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the same formula works if you are wrong. As the Witney by-election I bought LD vote share at 25% and they got 30.2% which meant I got back 5.2 times my stake level and built up my balance with Sporting Index. Tonight I’ve bought Clinton ECVs at 302 because I think that the polling and markets have over reacted to Friday’s…

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Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

Why YouGov says we should beware of the phantom swings: dramatic bounces in the polls aren’t always what they seem

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Maybe things aren’t as bad for Clinton after all? YouGov has produced what I regard as must read analysis by Benjamin Lauderdale of the LSE and Douglas Rivers on what it terms phantom polling swings. Thus on the face of it there has been a move from Clinton to Trump in the aftermath of the FBI announcement. Their argument is that this might not be all it seems In essence they are saying is that whenever there’s particularly bad news…

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As WH2016 moves into the final straight the PB/Polling Matters team looks at the polling & what might happen

As WH2016 moves into the final straight the PB/Polling Matters team looks at the polling & what might happen

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Is it getting closer and could there be a big surprise? In this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley), Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) and Rob Vance (@robvance) look at the latest US election polling and discuss whether the they are tightening. Keiran explains why he is less relaxed about a Clinton victory than the others. The discussion then turns to the electoral college and discuss key states to look out for next Tuesday including Ohio, Florida, North…

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Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

Just a week to go and it is going to be a very tense few days

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Can Trump really overtake Clinton to take the White House? In the past 48 hours, 91% of bets on the US Election have been on Trump. He's into 9/4. And we've already paid out on Hillary. Uh-oh. pic.twitter.com/pGEkHMbrF2 — Paddy Power Politics (@pppolitics) November 1, 2016 Heavy betting today on WH2016 with the money going on Trump – now a 27%, chance on Betfair. £2.5m wagered on this market alone pic.twitter.com/thHT0TZG1Q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The latest…

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Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne’s party in dire trouble

Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn/McDonnell/Milne’s party in dire trouble

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They used to blame the “plotters” – maybe they should look at their own hapless leadership Until September 24th the red team’s leadership had a ready made excuse whenever terrible polling numbers came out – it was all the fault of the MP plotters who had launched the confidence move against Corbyn in the aftermath of the referendum. Well Corbyn got re-elected in September and the LAB’s polling position is still appalling and miles behind where the lead opposition party…

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Clinton versus Trump: What men say their spouses will do and what women in partnerships actually say

Clinton versus Trump: What men say their spouses will do and what women in partnerships actually say

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Via @williamjordann Happy US families ahead of WH2016YouGov US: 33% of men say spouse supports Clinton compared with 45% who say they are pic.twitter.com/3XoNjKLW86 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016 The mug of a week tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/hlRuqgeUNd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2016

Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

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His first challenge: planning for the loss of all UKIP’s MEPs The UKIP leadership race is down to four with Paul Nuttall the 1/4 odds-on favourite. It is hard to see anyone beating him. The Merseysider has been a growing force within the party and the hope is that he will help UKIP challenge in Labour strongholds in the north. Certainly he’s an increasingly confident media performer and will set a different tone from Nigel Farage. Second in the betting…

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