For the 2nd week running CON make a local by-election gain – this time from LAB

For the 2nd week running CON make a local by-election gain – this time from LAB

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Eltham North (Lab defence) on Greenwich Result: Conservatives 1,335 (42% +10%), Labour 1,279 (40% +9%), Liberal Democrats 279 (9% +6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 160 (5% -15%), Green Party 110 (3% -7%) Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 56 (2%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative Southwater (Con defence) on Horsham Result: Conservative 1,046 (66% +30%), Liberal Democrats 308 (19% +2%), Labour 118 (7% -3%), United Kingdom Independence Party 109 (7% -8%) Conservative HOLD with…

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The dramatic moment when after four years as betting favourite punters realised Hillary had failed

The dramatic moment when after four years as betting favourite punters realised Hillary had failed

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I love betting charts like this from massive nights like the Brexit referendum or what we saw overnight on Tues/Wed. There’s something very dramatic about big election nights when suddenly there’s a realisation that the market has got it wrong and its going to turn our differently. We had it it is a big way on June 23rd and of course this week. Those that make the judgement first make the the most money. I like keeping these charts for…

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Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Local By-Election Preview :

Away from the dramatic political events in the US tonight’s Local By-Election Preview :

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We now return you to your regularly scheduled programme Eltham North (Lab defence) on Greenwich Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 43, Conservatives 8 (Labour majority of 35) Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,975, 1,823, 1,519 (32%) Labour 1,946, 1,942 1,556 (31%) United Kingdom Independence Party 1,221 (20%) Green Party 591 (10%) British National Party 307 (5%) Liberal Democrats 207, 205 (3%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 65,248 (56%) LEAVE 52,117 (46%)…

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How Clinton apathy delivered the presidency for Trump

How Clinton apathy delivered the presidency for Trump

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Keiran Pedley looks at some initial numbers suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton handed Trump the White House on Tuesday. After Tuesday night’s astonishing victory for Donald Trump you get the feeling that the fallout has only just begun. Analysts and pundits on all sides of the politial spectrum are trying to come to terms with what happened and there is likely to be an intense political fallout on the Democratic side with far reaching, long term implications for…

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Anatomy of parts of the biggest ever political betting event

Anatomy of parts of the biggest ever political betting event

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The total amount matched was £199,232,591 The reason the Clinton and Trump amount figures in the charts don’t add up to the overall total is that there were, of course, other possible and actual contenders. Another bookie, Sporting Index, has reported a successful US presidential election night with Donald Trump’s win set to result in a six figure profit for the leading spread betting company. I am sure that all PBers will be delighted to hear that news! Normally bookies…

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If Clinton does win the popular vote then it’ll make the polling look a tad less bad

If Clinton does win the popular vote then it’ll make the polling look a tad less bad

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Whatever this is going to go down as a massive polling miss This is becoming a bit of a pattern. A massive election in which the pollsters are seen to have performed badly. We haven’t got the final national vote shares yet but it is likely that Hillary Clinton will have topped Trump so the deviations for many in the RCP list above will be within the margins of error. Unfortunately for her it is state Electoral College Votes that…

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After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Trump’s extraordinary victory

After a dramatic night the PB/Polling Matters team analyse Trump’s extraordinary victory

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It’s 6.30am on Wednesday 9th November and Donald Trump is heading for victory and will soon become the next president-elect of the United States. Keiran and Leo discuss how it happened, what it means and what comes next. Follow Keiran and Leo at @keiranpedley & @leobarasi Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet