After a week away on business in the US I’ve returned to the UK more convinced more than ever that the Bush-Kerry race in November is going to be very tight even though the latest batch of polls has Bush back on top. The Bush campaign is attacking Kerry’s policies such as threatened hikes in gasolene taxes. In contrast the Kerry campaign is focussing on the qualities of their candidate trying give to give positive reasons to vote. People are…
The worsening situation in Iraq is taking its toll on the Bush campaign according to the latest batch of US polls. Almost all of them are showing healthy leads for John Kerry even when the potential wrecking candidature of the independent, Ralph Nader is factored in. The Newsweek poll has Kerry-Bush on 50-43 if Nader is not there but still 46-42 if he is. The American Research Group figures makes it 50-44 to Kerry without Nader and 48-43 with. These…
One of the most dangerous, risky but potentially most profitable political gambles is to bet against the opinion polls. I’ve done that twice this year – first by laying Howard Dean for the Democratic Nomination and second by betting against Ken Livingston being re-elected as Mayor of London. The Howard Dean call, made publicly on the Betfair Forum, was when Dean was 20% ahead and I got an average price of 1.7. At that stage I felt I could dismiss…
A spate of US opinion polls showing the Bush campaign to be under pressure, particularly on Iraq and its aftermath, is being ignored by British punters. Today’s claim by Edward Kennedy that “Iraq is Bush’s Vietnam” is resonating throughout the US media. In most recent surveys Kerry has crept up one or two points on Bush even taking into account the wrecking effect of the Ralph Nader candidature. It’s clear that Bush has been undermined by the recent revelations about…
An extraordinary idea that could completely blow out the White House 2004 betting market and scupper Bush’s chance of being re-elected is being speculated upon in Washington. The plan, quite simply, is that John Kerry, certain to be chosen as Democratic candidate in July, should select the Republican Senator from Arizona, John McCain as his running mate. The pair would then run on a National Unity ticket. The two have a lot in common. Both had illustrious military careers and…
The latest crop of polls in the US show Bush just ahead. But Kerry moves ahead if he chooses Edwards as his running mate. Not much movement since pre-Madrid. For a full round-up all major US polling information go to White House 2004 on this site’s links. This is going to be very tight and Kerry’s position is not helped by Ralph Nader who could pick up 2-3% of vital votes. I backed the Democrats at 3.05 on Betfair in…