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Category: US Politics

Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

Following the mid-terms on the Iowa Electronic Market

The US “stock market” where political futures are traded With all the focus on the US mid-terms one of the world’s great political betting arenas comes into its own – the Iowa Electronic Markets. This is operated by the state University in Iowa as an academic exercise on how markets function and has grown into a remarkable place where what are termed “political futures” are traded. What happens is that the IEE sets up a market and defines “stock” to…

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Could the next President be a woman?

Could the next President be a woman?

Betfair opens new White House 2008 market In just over a year’s time the potential candidates to be the next President will have to reveal their hands. For in order to get on the ballot for the first of the primaries, New Hampshire, formal nomination papers will have to be handed in during November and there’ll be fierce contest in both parties. And for the first time ever in the USA’s 230 year old history prominent women are being talked…

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Betfair opens US mid-terms markets

Betfair opens US mid-terms markets

Will the Republicans be able to hang on? With just three and a half weeks to go the betting exchange, Betfair, has now opened a range of markets on what will surely be the most important elections in the world during 2006 – the mid terms. Currently, the Republicans run both houses of Congress, but the outcome in November 2006 seems in doubt given the unpopularity both of President Bush and Congress. If the Democrats win one or both houses,…

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Guest Slot: Lewis Baston on the US Mid-Terms

Guest Slot: Lewis Baston on the US Mid-Terms

Will 10% poll margins be enough for the Democrats? It is always election season in the United States. Every second November sees either a Presidential election or important midterm elections that determine control of Congress and other political offices across the country. Currently, the Republicans run both houses of Congress, but the outcome in November 2006 seems in doubt given the unpopularity both of President Bush and Congress. If the Democrats win one or both houses, the implications for the…

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4th July special: back to the Nineties

4th July special: back to the Nineties

Gore and Gingrich reflect on their chances Last August, when I last covered the 2008 US presidential election, the favourites for the nominations were Hillary Clinton by a considerable margin on the Democratic side, and John McCain and George Allen roughly neck-and-neck for the Republicans. Eleven months later, Clinton and McCain have remained strong in the betting while Allen has faded. Tradesports rates Clinton a 43.45% chance for the Democratic nomination; on the GOP side McCain is at 41.15% and…

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US Election update by Ben Surtees

US Election update by Ben Surtees

Are we seeing a return of the Midterm Blues? Following the spate of difficulties that the Bush Administration has faced in recent months – Iraq, Katrina, immigration, Abramoff etc – the President has now got to face the midterm elections this November. Then he’ll see the entire House of Representatives, one third of the Senate and a host of statewide posts up for election. Historically, American voters have seen the midterms as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with their incumbent…

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Can Rumsfeld hold on?

Can Rumsfeld hold on?

It’s 3-1 that he’ll be out by the end of the year There’s a lively market developing on the US-focused Tradesports betting exchange on whether Donald Rumsfeld will hold onto his job beyond the end of the year. With six retired US generals calling for him to go because of the way he has handled Iraq the issue of the Defence Secretary’s future has now been taken up by Democratic Presidential hopeful Bill Richardson. The Pentagon PR machine is fighting…

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Is my 40-1 long-shot going to make it?

Is my 40-1 long-shot going to make it?

Mark Warner 2nd favourite for the Democratic nomination Last November I placed as much money as the bookies would allow me on the ex-Governor of Virginia, Mark Warner, to win the 2008 Presidential Election at the then price of 40/1. At the time I wrote here that I had been very much influenced by the comments on the site by Ben – one of PB.C most long-standing contributors who follows the American scene very closely. While there’s been a lot…

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