A timely reminder from two years ago At 1.05am EST on November 3rd 2004 the US news channel, CNN, showed the above graphic on the screen illustrating the result of an exit poll in Ohio, the key state that Senator John Kerry had to win if he was to beat George W. Bush for the Presidency. The message was clear. Kerry was ahead in Ohio and the chances were that the state would give him enough votes in the electoral…
Will Populus record a Brown leadership bounce? For polling geeks like me the next few surveys are going to be fascinating and might be good pointers to the future. For the transition from Tony to Gordon is well under way and he’s now being portrayed daily in the media mostly in a positive light as the PM in waiting. If there is going to be a Brown succession bounce then we might see the first signs of it. This could…
Will there be a double blow for Bush in Washington? With most pundits and polls suggesting that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the US Mid Terms on Tuesday attention is focussing on the Senate where latest polls indicate that it is getting very close. According to Electoral-Vote.com both the Democrats and the Republicans are set to get 49 seats in the Senate with two states, Missouri and Virginia, currently tied. The betting markets are…
Survey shows him doing better than Hillary against McCain Until this past week it has been hard assessing the White House chances of Barack Obama, the black Senator from Illinois, because his name has hardly figured in any of the polling. But that’s all changed following his announcement last week and a massive publicity blitz across the nation promoting his new book. Obama has become a nationally known figure almost overnight and he is clearly making an impact. The first…
Are we seeing the impact of the US on-line betting clampdown? With just five days of campaigning left the latest projections on the Electoral Vote site based on up to date polling show a 50:50 split in the Senate but with the Democrats having control of the House of Representatives by 239-195. On the Betfair betting exchange market the Democrats are now on 0.29/1 to take the House with the Republicans at 3/1. The Senate betting has the Republicans at…
> This is your chance to bet on whether Bush gets a bloody nose? In terms of global importance by far the biggest elections anywhere in the world take place across America next Tuesday. If the polls have got this right then the Republican grip on Congress is set to come to an end and there could be a spill over in British politics. For after winning back the White House in 2004 on what was the biggest day ever…
The Obama price tightens from 33/1 to 12/1 This is the cover of last week’s Time magazine which for seven days has been appearing on news-stands right across the US. This is the cover that has propelled the young first time Senator from Illinois into a position where the pundits are saying that only he can stop Hillary Clinton from securing the Democratic nomination for the 2008 White House race. This is the cover that prompted the questioning six days…
Why couldn’t the Brownites cash in on the Tory tax plan cock-up? On Sunday when I was planning the week ahead on the site I was convinced that the following days might see the moment when the Cameron band-wagon would drive to a halt. For judging by the weekend press reports Gordon Brown’s team had been absolutely cock a hoot over the way they had derailed last week’s Tory tax commission announcement and had got David Cameron and George Osborne…