How an automated canvas is made to sound like a poll This week the excellent Pollster.com site in the US carried this video of what was purported to be a survey from a pollster but was probably what is known as “push polling”. This is defined by Wikipedia as “…a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large…
Betfair now match £1m on the Democratic battle? With just one day’s campaigning to go before the crucial South Carolina Democratic primary both of the leading contenders, Clinton and Obama, have issued new radio ads in the increasingly angry war of words between the two camps. The impact of such advertising is not usually to make converts but to reinforce your own side to get them to vote. Obama needs a big victory on Saturday to stay in this race….
The above are the mid afternoon (1545 GMT) prices on the races for the Democratic and the Republican nominees for this November’s US Presidential election. The picture is getting much clearer as we move into the next crucial phase of state primaries. On Saturday 26 January it’s the South Carolina Democratic Primary and the following Tuesday there will be the crucial Republican and the Florida Democratic primaries. Once all those have been completed we should have an even firmer view…
Are they both more popular outside their parties than within? Just reading what some US right wing commentators are saying about John McCain it struck me that he is his party’s Ken Clarke. Both McCain and Clarke have sought and failed to be party leader/presidential nominee in the past Both McCain and Clarke have been seen by outsider observers as being highly electable Both McCain and Clarke are probably more popular outside their parties than within Both McCain and Clarke…
For those who find the battle between Clinton and Obama absolutely compelling this six minute extract from last night’s debate before a black audience in South Carolina is a must view. The black senator has clearly decided to raise the ante – the question is whether it will do him any good or not. The Clintons are a formidable pair. In the betting the Hillary price has continued to tighten and now stands at 0.45/1 for the nomination. Bear in…
How trading can reduce your betting exposure These are my current positions on Betfair’s Democratic nominee market and what, for me at least, is the best form of gambling, Spreadfair’s spread betting market. With the latter you can go in and out trading and, if you get it right, pocketing your profits even though the final outcomes might be nearly a year off. On Betfair I have now switched so that I come out a winner whatever the outcome without…
How the primaries have changed the betting The above charts show the dramatic betting price changes, expressed as implied probabilities, that we have seen in the Republican and Democratic nomination races in the past month as we have gone through the first phase of the primary and caucus process. The big change overnight has been in the GOP contest where for the first time we are getting some real clarity. It’s hard to see how Mike Huckabee can now get…
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