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Category: US Politics

“Significant Saturday” – the thread continues

“Significant Saturday” – the thread continues

Will PaddyPower pay out to Huckabee Kansas backers? With both the caucuses in Washington State and Nebraska now being predicted for Obama with overwhleming majorities we wait for the primary result in Lousiana where the exit polls have Obama ahead. After “Super Tuesday” these latest elections are being dubbed “Significant Saturday” On Sunday we have the Maine caucuses where 24 delegates are at stake. What will they call that? The big betting story has been from the Republican caucuses in…

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Are these the numbers that will swing it?

Are these the numbers that will swing it?

For US election junkies it’s another late night As we go into another weekend of frenzied activity in the race for the White House the above are the latest “head-to-head” polling figures from Real Clear Politics comparing how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would fare facing up to the Republican John McCain in a general election. The numbers are good for the junior senator from Illinois but still Hillary is leading when Democratic-leaning voters are asked who they would favour….

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Could it be six months before an outcome is clear?

Could it be six months before an outcome is clear?

Is it now impossible for either to win enough elected delegates? The Washington Post’s Paul Kane, in an interesting post highlighted by Taegan Goddard’s Politicalwire, suggests that it is now mathematically impossible for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton to pick up enough elected (pledged) delegates and that there’s a distinct possibility that the decision could be left in the hands of the so called “super-delegates”. If so then there could be no effective Democratic candidate until the party’s convention…

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Methinks it’s time to be back backing Hillary again

Methinks it’s time to be back backing Hillary again

My system for making money from the Democratic race If you’ve got ten minutes then the above sequence from MSNBC is well worth viewing. It’s a good piece of analysis of what went wrong with the polls and the media hype in the build up to Super Tuesday and re-affirms the little betting system that I’ve been following. If the media narrative is with Hillary and her betting price moves into the odds-on zone then back Barack. If the media…

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Why we focus so much on the White House Race

Why we focus so much on the White House Race

This is where the political betting action is One or two people have emailed me in the past few days to ask why PBC is devoting so many threads and items to the White House race. The answer is in the graphic above based on screen clips I took this morning from the Betfair site. Quite simply the US is where the betting action is Even the London Mayoral contest, which will be completed nearly four months before the first…

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Are the big donors deserting the Hillary campaign?

Are the big donors deserting the Hillary campaign?

Why has she had to lend $5M of her own money? A developing post-Super Tuesday story this evening on US political sites has been a report that Hillary has had to dip into her own resources to keep her campaign on the the road. It’s been confirmed that in late January, only days before Super Tuesday, that the former first lady made what was described as a “loan” of $5m. It’s being suggested that more money will have to be…

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24 hours on the Democratic nominee market

24 hours on the Democratic nominee market

How punters viewed the overnight developments The chart shows the changing betting prices, reflected as implied probabilities, on the Democratic nominee betting market as voting on Super Tuesday came to an end and the results started coming in. What is interesting is that the UK betting has tended to be a bit more pro-Hillary than the two betting arenas which are favoured mostly by Americans – Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets. Before we determine a winner from the night…

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