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Category: UKIP

The most important result on May 7th

The most important result on May 7th

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Why David Cameron might be grateful to Mark Reckless defecting Whilst it might be accurate to say every constituency result on May the 7th was important, the result in Rochester & Strood might be the one that has most impact in this parliament. Anything that helps, to borrow LBJ’s maxim, about keeping the Eurosceptics inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside pissing in, is good for the Tories, Cameron and the continued life of this government. Given the way the…

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UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party

UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordinary day in the life of Farage’s party

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Labour fired their leader after the election. Lib Dems fired their leader after the election. And UKIP are firing everyone but their leader. — Oliver Cooper (@OliverCooper) May 19, 2015 Former key allies Patrick O'Flynn and Suzanne Evans both lose their jobs in a 12 hour period as Nigel Farage exerts his authority at @UKIP. — Christopher Hope? (@christopherhope) May 19, 2015 Public repentance by spokesmen, advisers culled, personality cults, key ideologues purged, Ukip now more mysterious than N Korea….

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The UKIP implosion Part 2: Farage accused of being “snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive”

The UKIP implosion Part 2: Farage accused of being “snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive”

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UKIP's campaign chief launches remarkable attack on Nigel Farage http://t.co/gXcZMALMyp pic.twitter.com/izyjlb9gUn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2015 The fall-out from Farage’s unresignation continues Last Friday Nigel Farage stepped down as UKIP leader following his failure to become an MP. After the weekend that was all rescinded when the party executive refused to accept it. The following day there was a hugely publicised row between Farage and his party’s only MP Douglas Carswell. This morning the Guardian and a number…

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Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupid

Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupid

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Farage unresigns – http://t.co/VYN9YMdibq pic.twitter.com/J5oUsBuHca — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 11, 2015 During the campaign Farage made a big thing of him being ready to step down if he failed to win Thanet South. Well he did fail and did announce last Friday that he was resigning. This afternoon he’s back in the job after the party’s NEC “refused to accept it”. Rubbish. It just appears as though his campaign threat was a device. This doesn’t look good for UKIP…

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So were there really shy Kippers?

So were there really shy Kippers?

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Prior to the election, there was speculation, the pollsters weren’t picking up “Shy Kippers”. Though every single phone poll underestimated UKIP, it was within an acceptable amount, and the largest errors were from the online polls from Panelbase and Survation, who overestimated UKIP by 3%. The polls that underestimated UKIP, on average, underestimated UKIP by 1.6%, and the polls that overestimated, did so on average by 1.9%. The online pollsters overestimated UKIP by 0.8% and the phone underestimated UKIP by 1.7%….

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Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

Shy Kippers might be a problem for pollsters like shy Tories were in the 90s

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Could the (phone) pollsters be underestimating the UKIP support? Shy isn’t the first adjective I’d normally associate with UKIP supporters, but ever since David Cameron’s (in)famous comment about UKIP being a bunch of  “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly” there’s been a perception that UKIP are the BNP in blazers. But look at the above chart from YouGov, it might be indicative that some Kippers are shy about admitting who they really support. We’ve seen polling that shows, UKIP…

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Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

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Summary latest @LordAshcroft seat polls pic.twitter.com/I0ST2L7UC0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol WCON 14LAB 38LD 20UKIP 2GN 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft ThurrockCON 30LAB 31LD 2UKIP 35GN 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft High PeakCON 40LAB 38LD 7UKIP 10GN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Colne ValleyCON 37LAB 35LD 8UKIP 11GN 6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 25, 2015 @LordAshcroft Bristol NWCON 43LAB 34LD 8UKIP 8GN 6…

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New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

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This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South South Thanet Boston and Skegness Thurrock Forest of Dean Great Yarmouth North Thanet East Worthing and Shoreham Sittingbourne and Sheppey South Basildon and East Thurrock Castle Point A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which…

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