Could today prompt a Tory seepage to the anti-EU party? The big danger for Cameron’s Tories from today’s EU policy announcement is that this could lead to a seepage of support to UKIP at the general election. If you read ConservativeHome or believe their statistically-suspect “poll” of Tory members you would think that the world was coming to an end. Yet when it comes down to it the issue at the election will be whether voters want Brown’s Labour government…
 David Herdson assesses some of the options? Nearly eight years after the Laeken Summit kickstarted the process, there’s a good chance that the final hurdles to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty could be overcome next week, leading to the treaty coming into force on December 1. In Britain, that will throw the spotlight onto the Tories, whose policy on Lisbon will expire with the completion of the ratification process. The current policy of a referendum is one which is…
Or is Brown’s party just clutching at straws? According to Gaby Hinsliff and Henry McDonald in the Observer this morning ” a private analysis by Labour strategists suggests that the blues could be denied up to 50 seats at the election because of UKIP supporters splitting the Tory vote. The figures in Labour’s study, if that’s not too grand a term, “..are based on 100 “supermarginal” seats where its MPs are holding on with majorities of less than 2,000.” Certainly…
The UKIP man’s price moves in to 10/3 The big political betting news this weekend continues to be the general election fight in Buckingham between John Bercow and Nigel Farage. When ex-UKIP leader announced on Thursday morning that we would be standing against the speaker Ladbrokes opened the betting with a price of 6/1 that he’d do it. That didn’t last long and tightened to 4/1. Now Ladbrokes have had to bring in the price further because so much money…
BBC IPlayer Michael Crick’s programme is a must listen I’ve just picked up on BBC IPlayer this great Radio 4 investigation by Michael Crick on the funding of political parties and the rise of what he calls “The Political Club”. The programme blurb goes: “Michael Crick reveals how politicians are increasingly becoming a professionalised and separate class, who use their status to channel taxpayers’ money into the coffers of their parties. The recent scandal over MPs’ expenses has revealed how…
Ipsos-MORI Why do only 2 in 100 voters think that the EU is an issue? The chart above is from latest MORI Issues Index and shows how concern about the Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO continues to be at very low levels – something that now concerns only 2% of those polled. The index has been compiled in the same way for 30 years and involves asking, completely unprompted, what interviewees think are the “most important issues facing Britain today“. There is no…
How much of their June 4th publicity is still in place? Unlike most of of the other parties a key part of UKIP’s communications strategy at both the June 4th elections and ahead of last week in Norwich has been the heavy reliance on paid-for billboard advertising. The party did not join the massive leaflet extravaganza in the by-election but invested a lot in creating a presence on the streets through posters and innovative placings such as on telephone kiosks…
YouGov Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election. The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop…