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The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

The rise of UKIP: what does it all mean?

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By Dr. Rob Ford – University of Manchester As pb.com readers are doubtless aware, the UK Independence Party had their two best ever by-election results in recent weeks – scoring a record 14% in Corby in mid-November, then topping this again with 21% in the Rotherham by-election last week. This sharp rise in support – and the continued polling and by-election misery of the Liberal Democrats – have understandably lead to a lot of discussion. Where is support for UKIP…

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Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

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I’d need better odds than that William Hill have put up a new market on whether UKIP, now riding high, will win a parliamentary by-election this parliament, With the election scheduled for May 2015 the by-election would have to occur within the next two years and five months and after the latest crop there are none in the offing. The bet breaks down into two elements – the chances of a suitable by-election coming up and the chances of UKIP…

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More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

More polling showing that the EU isn’t the main issue for UKIP voters

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How UKIP supporters assess the importance of the EU as an issue. Some remarkable findings – see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 49%, though, rate immigration as key Ipsos-MORI aggregated data from their issues index polling will be published next week with the quite remarkable finding that just 20% of UKIP voters mention EU/Europe as a key issue facing the country. The one area that they are really concerned about is immigration with 49%. The Ipsos-MORI…

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Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates?

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David Herdson asks:Should the party without a single MP be given a place in the TV debates? bit.ly/VkNSd8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 David Herdson says there might be a case based on the polling In one sense, UKIP has enjoyed a Golden November. In the PCC elections, every one of their 24 candidates kept his or her deposit, their shares of the vote ranging from 6.9% in Merseyside to 18.7% in Northamptonshire. In the six parliamentary…

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The polling suggests that Europe is being much-overstated as a factor behind the UKIP surge

The polling suggests that Europe is being much-overstated as a factor behind the UKIP surge

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According to YouGov post-2010 general election polling just 41% of UKIP voters cited Europe as a factor. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012 Thanks to Anthony Wells of YouGov for linking to this polling taken after the 2010 general election which sought, amongst other things, to work out why people had voted the way they did. The responses from UKIP voters when asked to name what were the three key issues for them are showing in…

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ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

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Just one in three current UKIP supporters voted CON at the 2010 general election. See split. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Putting the UKIP surge in context for 2015? The latest data from ComRes shows that one third of those now saying they will support UKIP voted Conservative at the last general election. Disgruntled Lib Dems make up a large contingent but only 3% of them said they voted Labour. This puts into context the potential electoral…

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While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

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The BNP in strong 2nd place in “other” party preferences of UKIP voters from ComRes last week.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 Because UKIP are doing well the sub-sample on which this was based was on 173.

If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

If some of the polls are right UKIP could end up with more votes than the LDs – but not win a single seat

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Labour lead at 8 in latest YouGovCON 33%, LAB 41%, LD 9%, UKIP 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes make UKIP 9/2 to win more votes than the LDs at the general election. A good bet if polls are right. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 22, 2012 @mattstrong @msmithsonpb UKIP had 572 last time, virtually a full house. Will surely compete in all next time. — The Happy Tramp (@Happy_Tramp) November 22, 2012 Ladbrokes are offering…

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