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Category: UKIP

Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

Ipsos-MORI party like-dislike ratings for UKIP raise doubts about the party’s future progress

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How come that Farage’s party is now so disliked? One of the big problems with polling is that what tends to get reported is what fits the media narrative and other numbers can get ignored. Thus the big news from latest Ipsos-MORI “like/dislike” party and leader ratings was the big fall in Ed Miliband’s personal position which, of course, has been the big political story this summer. This has overshadowed other numbers from the firm about UKIP that might be…

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Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

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Which leader do you think is most likely to go first? David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Nigel Farage      Up to the end of July I thought that Ed Miliband was the leader most secure in his post with Cameron and Clegg fighting it out for second place. Now that has changed quite rapidly as we saw with the “Labour Insider’s” guest slot a couple of days ago on how EdM became much more vulnerable with the exit…

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The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

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The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP…

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The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

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All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…

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How a minor change to the electoral system could stop Farage’s party from topping the polls in next year’s Euro elections?

How a minor change to the electoral system could stop Farage’s party from topping the polls in next year’s Euro elections?

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Simply switch from the closed to an open list voting system There’s an intriguing move developing that could lead to a change in the way the EU elections are carried out resulting in an electoral system that’s less UKIP friendly. A report just out from the LSE for the Electoral Reform Society suggests that UKIP’s chances in next year’s EU elections could be seriously undermined if an “open list” voting system was used rather than, as at the moment, the…

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Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

Given that Farage must be UKIP’s best prospect for GE2015 PaddyPower open betting on which seat he’ll choose

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Interesting UKIP betting market from PaddyPower – which constituency will Nigel Farage stand in at #GE2015? pic.twitter.com/z3UpJY0TZn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Is Eastleigh where he’ll try to get into Westminster? By far the most recognised UKIP politician is the leader, Nigel Farage, and clearly he’s the one who you’d think would have the best chance of becoming an MP at GE2015. The party’s best performance ever in a Westminster seat was at Eastleigh in February when they…

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Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

Populus responds to some of the points about its new online poll

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Does “party ID” weighting understate UKIP? Yesterday I posted a couple of Tweets about the impact on the party ID weighting in the new online Populus poll which has just been launched. Instead of sticking with its traditional past vote weighting approach the firm had adopted party ID weightings based back to what was recorded in British Social Attitudes Survey of 2010, when, of course, UKIP support was much lower than it is today. The effect is quite marked as…

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