Browsed by
Category: UKIP

The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote

The issue that looks set to decide GE2015 – the size of the UKIP vote

Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K betting on UKIP's national vote share at GE2015 5-10% at 6/4 the favourite. See pic.twitter.com/Cd6jznFrzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 7, 2013 The smaller the UKIP vote the better it is for the blues With the vast bulk of the 2010 LDs who switched to LAB in the first year of the coalition sticking with their new allegiance the big decider at GE2015 looks set to be how UKIP perform in the key battlegrounds. As Lord Ashcroft’s polling…

Read More Read More

A new month starts and UKIP’s support remains buoyant

A new month starts and UKIP’s support remains buoyant

Comments 0 Comment

The Godfrey Bloom affair hasn’t even registered Another month starts and there’s no sign that support for UKIP is on the wane in spite of the much publicised blow at the party’s annual conference 11 days ago. The chart above shows the recent UKIP shares in the YouGov daily poll for News International and it is hard to detect any impact. The ComRes phone poll for the Indy, published on Monday, had UKIP up. The only firm with it down…

Read More Read More

Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

Marf’s latest and a look at the today’s main polling news

Comments 0 Comment

If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here. Chart from @YouGov showing which groups in society Tories are seen as being close to Big challenges there See pic.twitter.com/ooPlgBzdbK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 New Populus online poll has Lab 39 (+2) Cons 36 (+2) LD 11 (-1) UKIP 7 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 30, 2013 Look at the unweighted/weighted contrast from Populus

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

The polling figures that could lay to rest any idea of a CON-UKIP electoral alliance

Comments 0 Comment

What happened when voters were asked by YouGov how a CON-UKIP alliance would impact on their GE2015 preferences On the face of it this seems odd. For in the comparison standard poll CON and UKIP together had combined support of 44%. Yet just 35% told the pollsters that they would vote for a CON-UKIP alliance. What happened to the other 9%? This was the question that YouGov put after the standard one:- “Imagine that UKIP and the Conservatives agreed a…

Read More Read More

With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prospects for EURO2014 start to look better

With the media narrative moving against UKIP the Tory prospects for EURO2014 start to look better

Comments 0 Comment

My 10/1 bet is looking even more promising However you look at yesterday’s events at the Ukip conference it is hard to see how it has advanced the purples’ cause. Farage and his team were put under pressure from a hostile media and didn’t perform very well. In fact they looked like a shambles. It was blindingly obvious that Bloom was a loose cannon and action should have been taken much earlier. The party that has blossomed over the past…

Read More Read More

If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

If UKIP supporters had answered this Populus online question in a certain way they could have boosted the “value” of their views by a factor of 13

Comments 0 Comment

Regardless of which party, if any, you are likely to end up voting for at the next General Election due in May 2015 or are leaning towards at the moment, which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with? Yesterday afternoon I was at a polling seminar at the LSE attended by leading academics, pollsters and those, like me, with a keen interest in measuring political opinion. The highlight for many attendees was the sharp…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

Sean Fear – a great loss for the Tories and a great catch for UKIP

Comments 0 Comment

One thing that Sean isn’t is a “fruit-cake” On one of the Syrian threads last week long-standing PB regular, Sean Fear, announced that he’d switched from the Tories to UKIP. Sean’s relationship with the site is a long one. Back in 2004 he became just about the first regular Tory poster here at a time when the threads were totally dominated dominated by Labour supporters. He built up a great reputation for his courtesy, his detailed knowledge of elections and…

Read More Read More