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UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros. LAB now in top slot

UKIP no longer odds-on betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros. LAB now in top slot

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LAB now clear betting favourite to secure most votes in May Euros Last year UKIP were odds-on pic.twitter.com/yV4aLhn43w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2014 The Wythenshawe outcome seems to be depressing expectations One thing that I’ve missed in recent weeks has been the growing sentiment on the betting markets that Labour will win most votes and that the task facing UKIP is going to be harder than many predicted. At the start of the year Ladbokes made the purples a…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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Three months to go till the Euros and concern about UKIP’s key policy, immigration, sees a sharp drop in the Issues Index

Three months to go till the Euros and concern about UKIP’s key policy, immigration, sees a sharp drop in the Issues Index

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Sharp drop in concerns on immigration in the February @IpsosMORI Issues Index. See pic.twitter.com/eNXtuxInaP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2014 @MSmithsonPB @IpsosMORI Probably because we didn't get a surge of Romanians and Bulgarians arriving as some predicted! — The Oncoming Storm (@TheOncoming) February 25, 2014 The February Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is out and the summary findings are above. As can be seen the big mover since January has been immigration which has fallen 7%. Also down is concern about…

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So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

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Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!! Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time. Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of…

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Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

Will Farage accept Clegg’s challenge?

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And will it help Clegg and the Lib Dems?   This morning Nick Clegg has challenged Nigel Farage to a live debate on Britain’s membership of the European Union before May’s elections. I wonder if this the new approach is to do with the fact that senior Lib Dem MPs such as Tim Farron are publicly warning that the party’s “very presence in the European Parliament could be at stake” as it contends with poor opinion poll ratings that consistently put the junior coalition party behind UKIP. Every…

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The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency on track again

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It’s tougher because LAB, at least, has worked out how to fight them We’ve heard a lot from Nigel Farage and others Kippers in the past day or so about the difficulty of fighting what they describe as the “ruthless” Labour machine. The very high proportion of votes cast that were done by post is one of the things that they’ve highlighted as though it was somehow unfair. It may or may not be but that is the current electoral…

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There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

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It’s even possible that they’ll struggle to retain 2nd place It’s not often that we see such a mismatch between the betting on an election just three and a half months away and what the pollsters are telling us. That’s what’s happening with the May Euro elections where the UKIP winning most votes prices remains strong even though there’s little polling evidence to support it. There’ve only been three published polls so far this year. The Tories have been in…

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