The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…
English council results so far via the BBC. pic.twitter.com/a1qcl07rZ3 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 Like opinion polls, it is wise not to focus on one or two councils, but look at the broader picture. Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections…
This result could totally undermine the legitimacy of Labour’s victory The big impact of the rise of Ukip looks set to be a general election outcome that could call into question its whole legitimacy. If current trends continue Ukip could end up with many more votes nationally than the LDs and not end up with a single MPs. Labour could come home with a substantial overall majority even though it chalked up less than a third of the overall number…
Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 @ChrisBloore Postal ballots just started to arrive with apparent confusion of alternative to Ukip at top of form pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014
If reports are correct Roger Helmer is set to become Ukip candidate in Newark & possibly party's first elected MP pic.twitter.com/WLN5uP0NtD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 He could appeal to the party’s key target voters According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros. If, as is widely assumed, Ukip do…
New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014 So we have a by-election in Newark. Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013…
William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB
It is top of the ballot in all 9 English regions Back at the 1994 European Elections the Lib Dems thought that had lost in the South West region because a party calling itself “The Literal Democrats” syphoned off support that the party believe should have gone to them. This led to a celebrated court case which the Yellows lost. I wonder what today’s purples will make of this – the “An Independence from Europe party” that’s appeared on the…