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Category: UK Elections – others

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

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South Shields: LAB punters getting slightly nervous on Betfair with price edging out from 1/99 to 1/25.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2013 May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions. Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three…

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The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in favour than against

The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in favour than against

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But Ukip voters express the most opposition By 33% to 31% ComRes poll finds CON supporters would be more likely to vote for candidates in the locals who are in favour of wind farms. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 1, 2013 The findings above are from a new ComRes online poll commissioned by RenewableUK, the trade body for the wind industry. One question, featured above, was on whether voters would be more or less inclined to vote for candidates who…

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Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

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Note the other methodology qualifications On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals. Because of the geographical specifics and likely low turnout this has been a very challenging survey for the pollster to carry out and there are some important qualifications. Unlike normal ComRes voting intention…

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The scene is set for a dramatic and unpredictable election day on Thursday

The scene is set for a dramatic and unpredictable election day on Thursday

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All but one of the main four monthly pollsters have UKIP on record highs. The other one has them just 1 off. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 One of the key rules when analysing polls is not to compare the individual numbers from the different firms but to look at the overall trends. And from the main pollsters, the established firms that have been commissioned to carry out regular voting intention surveys at least once since at…

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Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Farage’s party impact on next week’s outcomes?

Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Farage’s party impact on next week’s outcomes?

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Prof Colin Rallings talking about the Ukip factor at today’s briefing on next week’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013 Chart from Prof John Curtice at today’s local elections briefing showing how the Tories are being most hit by Ukip twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013 Today I’ve been at the annual briefing organised by the Political Studies Association on the May local elections. On the panel were Professor John Curtice from Strathclyde and…

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LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?

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The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 The Sunday Times today publishes the annual projection of national equivalent national vote share for the May local elections based on the performances of the parties in local by-elections. This, of course, is the production of the duo of Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth. They, alongside Professor…

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