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Category: UK Elections – others

Should you bet NOW on the EU referendum result?

Should you bet NOW on the EU referendum result?

Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed a UK bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month. This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side – 4/9 on “No…

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The money’s chasing the Tories in the wrong market

The money’s chasing the Tories in the wrong market

The fact that political gamblers are people who back their views about political outcomes with hard cash does not make them any more “right” than the rest of the population. In fact the nature of gambling is that at least half of all the money that’s bet will be lost. At the moment we see big money going on the Conservatives for a General Election win that could be two years away with all the uncertainties not least because there…

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Ken’s lead collapses – YouGov

Ken’s lead collapses – YouGov

With just over four weeks to go before the London Mayoral election Politicalbetting.com’s longstanding call to back Norris looks even better than ever. A You Gov poll in the Evening Standard has the split at Livingstone 40 – Norris 31. But taking only those saying they are “certain to vote” the figures change to 39-34 a lead for Ken of just 5% As we’ve been saying for months – this is the best political bet there is. Get on before…

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Ten reasons why London Mayor punters can ignore Jarvis

Ten reasons why London Mayor punters can ignore Jarvis

Steve Norris at 11 is a great value political bet – a big return for a small risk ONE. The only electors whose views matter are those one in three Londoners that bother to vote at local elections. In a low turnout election the real campaign is not what’s reported in the media but the efficiency in which the party machines identify and then get their own supporters out on the day. TWO. The mathematics of a low-turnout mean that…

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Predicting low turn-out elections

Predicting low turn-out elections

With almost all the parties having launched their local and Euro campaigns for “Super Thursday” on June 10 the nightmare for political gamblers and others who like to predict these things is how do you deal with very low-turnouts? For low-turnouts can completely distort a result making prediction very challenging and can cause politicians and commentators to draw totally wrong conclusions about the way the public feels. Before the 1999 Euro Elections all the polls had support for Labour at…

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Don’t confuse votes with seats..

Don’t confuse votes with seats..

………and don’t confuse seats for votes. A consistent theme on Politicalbetting.com is that political gamblers should not confuse votes for seats. We’ve repeatedly pointed out that because of differing turnouts and the way the Westminster seats are distributed Labour can still win a Commons majority even if its vote slumps by 10% at the next General Election. But there’s another danger that was repeated by the Guardian in its main leader yesterday – do not confuse Labour’s healthy Commons seat…

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Flying blind in London…

Flying blind in London…

……………………………………….betting without the aid of opinion polls The next big political betting event – the London Mayoral Election – is less than six weeks away but there has been almost no polling information to guide punters and very little media coverage. Unlike in 2000 just one bookmaker is offering odds and there is a single, but lively, betting exchange market. When Ken Livingstone was first elected in 2000 he was taking on the Labour establishment and his fight made big…

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Steve Norris and politicalbetting.com

Steve Norris and politicalbetting.com

It’s inevitable as politicalbetting.com gets known that candidates running for office are going to use what’s said here if they think it to their advantage. The website of the Steve Norris campaign in London has included some of our observations on the opinion polls. When we make a call here we do so because we believe that on the basis of the evidence the chances of something happening are less than the current betting odds. Our objective is solely to…

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