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Category: UK Elections – others

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If electors in tomorrow’s two by-election vote in accordance with the latest national opinion polls then Labour will have huge victories in both Birmingham and Leicestereven though the party’s share nationally has dropped by ten per cent since the last General Election. According to the latest General Election projection produced for each Westminster seat by the City mathematician, Martin Baxter, these would be the results:- Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB 50.8%: CON 19.3%: LIB 11.1%: OTH 18.6% Leicester South LAB 43.4%:…

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Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Could the Lib Dems win both Westminster seats? An almost total absence of Labour backers led to last night’s price moves on the by-election betting markets which leave the Lib Dems as heavy odds-on favourites in Leicester and at times touching evens in Birmingham. William Hill closed their market at the stated time with the Lib Dems on 4/11. If the betting markets are correct then there’s a chance that the party could be heading for two number one positions…

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Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Leicester LDs tighten even further – now 4/11 With all bets you have to ask yourself – what is the risk and what is the return? If the potential winnings are greater than the risk then you have a good value bet. If not then don’t bet. We’ve been calling the Lib Dems in Leicester South for weeks and we stick with that – but we do not believe that the current 4/11 , which it has moved to this…

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Betting on the by-elections & other markets

Betting on the by-elections & other markets

More bookmakers open by-election markets Even though the main online political bookmaker, William Hill, closed their by-election markets, as they said they would, on Friday evening another bookmaker and a betting exchange have now decided to get involved. Click through on this link and choose either PaddyPower or Betfair. The PaddyPower prices are nothing like as attractive for most options as William Hill was last week. Its latest prices are:- Leicester South: Lib Dem 4-6: LAB 15-8: CON 5-1: Birmingham…

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Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

What would a by-election victory do for his career? Last month Chris Heaton-Harris (above) – Conservative candidate in Leicester South – was re-elected as an MEP for a further five years. What we find odd is that he’s said he will give up being an MEP if he wins. For if victory does come next Thursday then the chances of the Tories retaining the seat in the General Election are very slim. It would take a gigantic swing on the…

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Bring Back the Great British By-Election?

Bring Back the Great British By-Election?

Where’s the 2004 version of the late Vincent Hanna? We very much agree with the lament by the Guardian political writer, Michael White, this week. Byelections are not the thriving political industry they used to be. No more rowdy public meetings, no daily press conferences where the candidates were made to squirm by the BBC’s legendary Vincent Hannah. There are not many byelections anyway. MPs no longer routinely die in harness. How things are different ahead of next week’s Birmingham…

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Market Movers in the US and UK

Market Movers in the US and UK

It’s an indication of how far John Kerry has come that betting prices on the Democrats taking the White House have more than halved, and those on the Republicans have more than doubled, since the start of the year when the long process of selecting a nominee began. Following yesterday’s announcement about John Edwards being the running mate there’s been a further hardening of the John Kerry odds which are very close to evens on both sides of the Atlantic….

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Do you wear one of these?

Do you wear one of these?

Updated 5.30pm Do you know when the Tories last won a seat from another party in a by-election? It’s a reflection of the Tory’s appalling performance at parliamentary by-elections over the decades that the only people who might know the answer to this are the “political anoraks”. Sadly we are part of that group! You have to go back to June 3 1982, in the raified political atmosphere of the Falklands War, for the Merton, Mitcham and Morden by-election which…

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