Browsed by
Category: UK Elections – others

Could Labour’s lost deposit be good news for Tony Blair?

Could Labour’s lost deposit be good news for Tony Blair?

Tory share rises but the Lib Dem margin gets bigger As we said the Cheadle by-election was always going be determined by what would happen to the Labour vote and the big squeeze yesterday that saw that drop by almost half on May 5th meant that the Lib Dems held it with ease. The skill of the Lib Dem campaign supremo, Chris Rennard, in demonising the Tories encouraged more tactical voting and meant that although the Tories advanced they are…

Read More Read More

Will Rennard’s indignation strategy save Cheadle?

Will Rennard’s indignation strategy save Cheadle?

Can the Lib Dems make the leaflet “rapist” claim backfire? In the closing phase of election campaigns parties often implement strategies designed solely to get their activists motivated and their supporters out to vote. At the General Election Tony Blair created the “if one in 10 Labour supporters switches or stays at home then Michael Howard becomes PM” line to put fire into his troops and to scare wavering voters into going to the polls. The fact that the statement…

Read More Read More

Cheadle – it’s getting tighter

Cheadle – it’s getting tighter

What result does Labour want? With only hours to go before the polling booths open our latest betting price chart on the Cheadle by-election markets shows that the implied probablilty of a Lib Dem win in the eyes of punters and bookmakers has continued to decline. From an 88% chance of success just ten days ago the figures has slumped to 66%. So Charles Kennedy’s party is still the odds on favourite but there’s nothing like the confidence of the…

Read More Read More

So what do YOU think will happen in Cheadle?

So what do YOU think will happen in Cheadle?

Enter our Cheadle by-election competition From the betting perspective Thursday’s Cheadle by-election has been an absolute flop. Only one market has been available and that has been on the Betfair betting exchange where punters themselves offer odds without the intervention of a bookmaker. From the media perpsective there has hardly been any coverage apart from the speculation, which started here last Saturday, on what a Lib Dem defeat would mean for Charles Kennedy’s CV. The site, though, has been bubbling…

Read More Read More

Tory hopes rise in Cheadle

Tory hopes rise in Cheadle

How punters are viewing the by-election With just two days to go before the first by-election of this Parliament the money seems to be following the Tories with some punters at least believing that the party might have a chance. The above chart shows the implied probability of a Tory win in Cheadle on Thursday based on the latest betting odds and is the first time we have used this format to show market moves. Until now whenever we have…

Read More Read More

How one punter reacted to the bombings

How one punter reacted to the bombings

Cheadle by-election price – Lib Dem RED: Tory BLUE Is the outrage going to help the Tories? The above chart shows the dramatic movement in the odds on the Cheadle by-election yesterday before and after the bombing in London. This is on the Betfair betting exchange where individual punters back and lay without a bookmaker to set the prices. So far the Cheadle market has attracted very little intetest and even though there is less than a week to go…

Read More Read More

Could Cheadle give Charles Kennedy a headache?

Could Cheadle give Charles Kennedy a headache?

Do the Tories stand any chance of wininng? The mood amongst Liberal Democrats at the PB.C party at the weekend was that defending the Cheadle by-election a fortnight today might be a tougher challenge than the current Betfair price might suggest. There are a number of issues:- Will Labour supporters switch? With a Lib Dem majority in 2001 of just 33 votes Cheadle was right at the top of the Tory hit list and this put the squeeze on Labour…

Read More Read More

Cheadle – the betting begins

Cheadle – the betting begins

But will anybody risk money by going against the Lib Dems The betting exchange, Betfair, have just opened a maket on which party will win the Cheadle by-election. Unlike a conventional bookmaker Betfair is an exchange and you can only place a bet a if another punter is prepared to lay it. Betfair itself simply provides the facility. At the time of this posting there was nobody on this market offering odds on the Lib Dems. This shoulds change but…

Read More Read More