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Category: UK Elections – others

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot…on Saturday

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot…on Saturday

What if There Were a By-Election in Old Bexley and Sidcup? Unlike Rod Crosby, I don’t anticipate a by-election in this seat. However, it’s worth giving some thought to what would happen if Derek Conway were to step down, and a by-election called. The seat itself is a mighty Conservative stronghold. Conway had a majority of nearly 10,000 over Labour in 2005. In the local elections of 2006, the Conservatives won all 24 council seats in the constituency, and took…

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Will Gord try to undermine Tony’s Euro bid?

Will Gord try to undermine Tony’s Euro bid?

Is he worth 2/1 to become President of Europe? When either one of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or John McCain is formally installed as President of the United States at noon on January 20th 2009 will one of their first meetings be with the new President of Europe, one Tony Blair and former resident of Number 10 Downing Street? For one of the most intriguing political battles during the next eleven months will be who gets the newly enhanced role…

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Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample? The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight – the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm. In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily…

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Boost for Ken in new YouGov poll

Boost for Ken in new YouGov poll

YouGov puts him 4% ahead After one of his most controversial weeks since becoming Mayor in 2000 there’s a boost tonight for Ken Livingstone in his bid to secure a third term in the most powerful directly elected office in the UK. A Yougov survey for ITV London found – with changes on its last poll a month ago – Ken 44% (-1): Boris 40% (-4): Paddick LD 8% (nc) The poll detail is not yet available so it’s hard…

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Did YouGov really get Ken’s result wrong last time?

Did YouGov really get Ken’s result wrong last time?

Can the pollster be accused of “persistently understating” his ratings? With the row over Ken Livingstone’s custodianship of the London mayoralty continuing unabated the election on May 1st that will determine his future looks set to be the biggest UK political betting bonanza since the 2005 general election. It has all the ingredients that make it attractive to punters – high profile contenders who everybody knows by their first names; passionate feelings across the political spectrum about the current incumbent…

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Can Ken withstand the media barrage?

Can Ken withstand the media barrage?

Is winning a third term starting to look doubtful? If you want proof that May’s fight for the London Mayoralty might not be the foregone conclusion that the betting markets currently suggest then do what I did last night – go to Google News and input the words “Ken Livingstone”. The top few results are featured in the screen shot above – and just looking down the list you can see that he might be in some trouble. What’s particularly…

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Why not be like Boris and get two for one?

Why not be like Boris and get two for one?

The betting markets move against the Tory mayoral contender On the face of it the 2008 race for the London mayor has everything. Two candidates who are known simply by their first names as well as a high profile Lib Dem; what looks like quite a tight contest and the knowledge that voting takes place in just 16 weeks time so you won’t be locking up your cash for long. Yet compared with the 2000 and 2004 elections punter interest…

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YouGov has Ken just 1% ahead

YouGov has Ken just 1% ahead

The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7% A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008. If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that…

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