Will Glasgow East see the first sign of an exodus? There has been much written already about the potential fortunes of the Labour Party in Glasgow East, and as remarkable as it seems, the 13,507 majority currently enjoyed by David Marshall was not even enough to prevent the SNP from being ‘bookies’ favourites’ when the markets first opened. The punters on the site, far more knowledgeable on the specifics of this constituency than I, have made me wonder how we…
Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…
How should the Lib Dems handle the Henley campaign? Reproduced above is what happened when my email software, Thunderbird, opened a Henley campaign email sent yesterday from Nick Clegg to thousands of party members, including myself. I’ve included this partly as a bit of fun and to help illustrate a broader question about the by election which has now been set for a fortnight next Thursday – how does Clegg’s party fight in Tory held seats? For in the two…
Would Clegg’s approach to Labour be the campaign issue? The suggestions that Mark Oaten might quit his Winchester seat before the general election and create a by election creates big challenges for both Nick Clegg and David Cameron. For the newly-energised Tories, flushed with confidence following Crewe and Nantwich, would fancy their chances in a seat that was lost to the Lib Dems by just two votes at the 1997 general election. Then the result was contested in the courts,…
Recapping the first by-election thread? While the inquest on Crewe and Nantwich continues it is perhaps worth looking back to what people were saying about the by-election on Friday April 18th when news of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s death became known. The thread is here and to me the most striking feature was the way those of a known Tory allegiance were trying to dampen expectations. I probably overstated the Lib Dem prospects and one or two of the serious betting contributors…
Why C&N gives me the confidence to come off the fence In assessing the significance of the Crewe and Nantwich result for the next general election ask yourself this – when was the last time that the Tories took a seat off Labour in a by-election and then failed to win the subsequent general election? The answer is Leyton in January 1965 which was held in the unique circumstances of a vacancy being created to provide a Commons seat for…
The PB 10/1 by-election gamble is looking very good Gordon’s smile says it all. Cast your mind back just eleven months to that euphoric day, June 27th 2007, when the Blair era ended and the Brown era began. Not long after the formalities the picture was taken outside Number 10 and during the following hour there was a huge buzz on PB. It started at 3.15 pm with this comment by Charlie – “some excellent new markets on hills ive…
Could an appalling result start a chain reaction? On October 18th 1990 a by-election took place in the Sussex seaside resort of Eastbourne to fill the vacancy caused by the the death of Ian Gow, the previous MP and close friend of Margaret Thatcher who had been murdered by the Provisional IRA. The result, as seen above, was a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats. The result, reproduced from Wikipedia above, particularly in view of the circumstances of the by-election,…