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Category: UK Elections – others

LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

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LAB’s fighting 77% of the seats compared with the Tories’ 96% One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one. One the face of it you would assume that this would reflect itself at election time particularly local ones where turnout…

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Changing the subject – our first look at the May 2nd local elections

Changing the subject – our first look at the May 2nd local elections

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Will feelings about Corbyn and TMay impact on activists? Somewhat overshadowed by the ongoing brexit saga we will get a further chance to test the political temperature in this year’s local elections which take place on May 2nd – three weeks on from Thursday. Nominations closed before the weekend. Because London is not involved then expect less media coverage than normal but the seats at stake, covering almost all of England outside the capital, represent the biggest wave in the…

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Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts

Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts

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John Curtice In an article in the Independent and a presentation at the annual Political Studies Association local election briefing John Curtice has cast doubts on the suggestions that Corbyn’s Labour is going to have an exceptional performance in this week’s locals. The big thing in his analysis is that there is a huge divide on Brexit between London, where 42% of the seats will be contested, and the councils in the rest of England where elections are being held….

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Tonight on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

Tonight on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

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With the local elections only a week ago I am very pleased to alert to you this evening’s PB/Polling Matters podcast when Keiran Pedley’s guest will be Professor Colin Rallings who with Professor Michael Thrasher are just about the country’s leading experts on local elections. Prof Rallings will also be known to those who watch the ITV general election programmes. This is something of a first and I think that the podcast format developed by Keiran enables the level of…

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LAB and the LDs must be hoping to move up the BBC National vote share projection next week – with the Tories edging down

LAB and the LDs must be hoping to move up the BBC National vote share projection next week – with the Tories edging down

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Drawing national conclusions from the local battles We are only 8 days away from the May local elections which at the moment looks as though will be the most significant UK electoral test that we will have during 2018. One of the problems with looking for national trends from the locals is that very different ranges of seats come up each year and we cannot simply use the party vote or seat totals for comparison. Over a four year cycle…

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If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

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Sean Fear rates a Barnet CON hold a 50-50 chance I’ve just had a bet at 23/10 with Ladbrokes that the Conservatives will hold on to Barnet in the local elections on May 3rd. My reason is an assessment by long standing PB contributor, Sean Fear, that this is a 50-50 chance and in such cases the betting option that’s longer than evens is the value bet. Sean has long experience of London elections and I for one take notice…

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The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities

The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities

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A long-standing PBer with great knowledge of London local elections has emailed me to suggest that the 11/4 on a CON majority on Barnet Council in next month’s locals is a “good value bet”. I know that he himself is big Tory activist and knows this area very well. If he is getting the message that it might not be the certain LAB gain that was being suggested a few weeks ago then I for one take that seriously. I’ve…

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Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets you zoom in and get ward level election results

Introducing the Universal Ballot Database – A map which lets you zoom in and get ward level election results

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Election anoraks can spend hours with this On PB we always like to hear about innovative means of getting election and other data. Well let me alert you to Lawrence Ware’s grandly titled Universal Ballot Database which enables the user to zoom in, see the mapping of every individual ward n England and Wales and the results. What it does is link the comprehensive Rallings and Thrasher election data base with Google maps. It does use an enormous amount of…

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