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Category: Donald Trump

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

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It is that gap with women that’s so tough for the incumbent One of the great things that happened in the early days of PB (before GE2005) was the creation of the British Polling Council which placed requirements on pollsters to make available certain key data within a fixed time period after the publication of a poll. This is voluntary but political pollsters know that they will struggle to make an impact unless they are BPC compliant. We now take…

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This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

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Daily Express readers give their backing to the racist pussy grabberhttps://t.co/G0SLKkOpwJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2020 Like many PBers I am following WH2020 polling very closely at the moment given millions of Americans have already voted and the election itself is three weeks today. As a result the above story from the “newspaper” the Daily Express popped up my inbox. It says that “a new UK survey has put the President way out in front in the race…

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Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems

Trump’s money troubles: cutting advertising spend in key states points to problems

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Biden is out-spending him and Trump can’t find a killer line Donald Trump is famously so poor that he only paid $750 in federal income tax in 2016. His campaigning in 2016 was similarly economical. In that election, Trump raised and spent only just over half the total of his opponent: Hillary winning the funding battle by $1191m to $647m. In the end, of course, that didn’t matter; Trump won the election. He did so partly because Hillary was just…

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Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

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After the VP debate Trump used the word “monster” to describe Kamala Harris. A Trump campaign adviser Harlan Hill tweeted during event that Harris was an “insufferable lying bitch,” . This was even too much for Fox news which has banned him from appearing. All this, I’d argue, will help reinforce the big electoral dynamic of this campaign – seen in the Morning Consult polling in the Tweet above – the struggle the President has with women voters. Just about all…

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On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels

On the Smarkets betting exchange Biden’s chances edge to record levels

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One of the frustrations for people like me who love to bet on political outcomes has been the suspension by Betfair of its £100m next president market following the hospitalisation of Trump. Given that we are just four weeks and one day away from the election I think the firm is being over-cautious. I can see the argument that we could be betting on whether Trump survives but, as someone who for a time worked for the firm, I think…

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Why there won’t be a President Romney

Why there won’t be a President Romney

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Sometimes it’s worth asking a QTWTAIN even when you know the answer The ancient Greeks gave us many things. Democracy. Really long poems. The kebab*. Proof by contradiction. Let’s combine two of them now, in a manner of speaking, to look at where the US election might be going in the light of Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. Everyone should be wishing Donald Trump well right now. Those who want him to win, for obvious reasons; those who want him to…

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