Betfair punters now make it a 50-50 chance that Trump won’t complete a full first term
Betdata.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Ever get the feeling you’ve been cheated?
All around the developed world, political loyalties are breaking down. Electorates in Britain and the USA have gambled on reckless options in Brexit and Trump. The hard right is a formidable political force in traditionally prosperous countries such as Sweden and Austria (where they may enter coalition government after the imminent election), and anti-immigrant voters have found their voice in France and Germany. Secessionists ride high in Scotland and Catalonia. Centrists find themselves outflanked on the left too, with centre…
Betting on the number of tweets by Donald Trump next week
Paddy Power have a market up on how many times Donald Trump will tweet from his @RealDonaldTrump account between the 18th and 24th of September. The website twittercounter has analysed Trump’s twitter account, and over the last 30 days he’s averaging six tweets per day, so over a week, we should expect something around 42 tweets per week, so by my reckoning the 11/1 on 31-40 tweets represents value. However I’m not comfortable on staking much on someone as volatile as…
Porn in the U.S.A.
I’ve always felt the topics of the betting markets are an indicator of how parties, governments, and leaders are doing. This market by the famously publicity shy bookmaker Paddy Power sums up the Trump Presidency, this is the sort of market I’d expect to see about Silvio Berlusconi, if a Trump Presidency was going well, we wouldn’t get a market like this. With Russian politicians openly boasting they have compromising information on Trump and Russian intelligence stole the American Presidency…
Betting on what Trump will be impeached for
Paddy Power have a market up on if Trump were to be impeached, what that reason would be. I’m sitting out this market for a variety of reasons, mostly because the options in this market are so few, and doesn’t cover the ‘High crimes and misdemeanors’ scenario in Section 4 of Article II of the United States Constitution that allows for a President to be impeached. With a Russian politician openly admitting at the weekend that ‘American intelligence missed it when Russian intelligence…
If Russia really has compromising material against Trump and planning to use it then there’s a few bets that need considering
Please not the footage of Trump and peeing hookers. I DON'T WANT TO WRITE THAT ARTICLE.https://t.co/b3P5IdzMSO — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 5, 2017 The Independent along with many other outlets is reporting A Russian politician has threatened to “hit Donald Trump with our Kompromat” on state TV. Speaking on Russia-24, Nikita Isaev, leader of the far-right New Russia Movement, said the compromising material should be released in retaliation over the closure of several Russian diplomatic compounds across the US. When asked whether Russia…
After another stormy period punters make it a 56% chance that Trump won’t survive a full first term
Returning once again to what continues to be the biggest political betting market in the UK at the moment – is Trump going to complete a full first term? This is very much driven by the news coming across the Atlantic and the latest is his pardon to ex-county sheriff, Joe Arpaio. As has been widely reported he’s is a very controversial figure,particularly for his immigration sweeps in targeted Latino neighborhoods, and the conditions in his jail. Six years ago…
Gerrymandered congressional districts could save the House for the GOP
But a GOP-controlled House leaves Trump with fewer excuses for 2020 The Great Dealmaker has not had the greatest first seven months in the White House. No wall, no healthcare reform, a chaotic West Wing and innumerable self-inflicted PR gaffes are not an ideal start to a presidency. Ironically, the one president that Trump rates himself behind is perhaps the only one to have had a worse start: at least there’s been no civil war so far. Those failures and…