Following the posts about how pollsters try to find elusive Tories a reader has suggested that with the leadership of Michael Howard the party is more sure of itself and that supporters are much more likely to admit this to interviewers. Thus it is not that there are more Tories – just more of them ready to say so! If that is the case, and with all the pollsters’ balancing measures that are in place to redress the Tory position,…
In the weeks before the last General Election a remarkable techicial innovation took place with almost no publicity. Several thousand households were telephoned by a computer and whoever answered was asked questions about their voting intention by a computer-generated voice to which they responded by using the phone’s keypad. Within hours the UK’s first ever completely automated opinion poll results were published. The opinion poll establishment, if there is such a thing, was horrified. The BBC ruled that this new…
To liven up betting on the General Election there should be market on which party will get most seats in England. This could be an easier target for the Tories because the way that Westminster seats are distributed means that they need to have a votes margin of at least six full percentage points to become the next Government – Labour is there even if it is three points behind. Michael Howard has shown himself to be ruthless and already…