politicalbetting.com

UKIP will get less than 2% of the national vote The UKIP threat to Michael Howard’s party at the General Election could be blunted by the rules which determine how the broadcasting organisations are allowed to cover the campaign once it has been declared. For although these have yet to be finalised they will almost certainly follow previous practice and allocate the lion’s share of election broadcasts to those defined as “major parties” – Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in…

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Try this little test. Click on this link to go Upmystreet.com. Type in the postcode of a UK residential address that you want to check. Then click on the link marked ACORN PROFILE and go to “full profile” . You will then see an interesting description of how the marketing business assesses people who live there, how much they earn, what TV they watch, the things they buy and what papers they read etc. Now ask yourself whether the profile…

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Can “below the radar” campaigning give Michael Howard a chance? A good piece by Brian Wheeler on BBC News online on Lynton Crosby – the Australian Campaigning guru who has been hired by the Tories to run the coming election campaign. It notes:- The 48-year-old has been described as a “master of the dark political arts” and “the Australian Karl Rove,” a reference to George Bush’s legendary campaign adviser. In 2002, Australian newspaper The Age described Mr Crosby as “one…

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Is a Tory BUY now good bet? Today’s Populus Poll in the Times shows a big recovery for the Tories after a tricky autumn. The figures are: LAB 34 (-1): CON 33 (+5): LD 22 (-3): UKIP 2 (-2) This has been helped by the expcted decline in UKIP following the leadership rifts and Robert Kilroy-Silk’s decision to detach himself from his MEP colleagues in Brussels. The poll itself and the big coverage being given to it by the Times…

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Would handicap betting make the General Election more interesting? A common practice whenever an event seems a foregone conclusion is to introduce a “handicap” element to make the betting on the second or third favourite an attractive proposition. With most of the polls showing Labour 4-5% ahead it’s very hard to see what Michael Howard will be able to take out of the General Election for the Tories. Even allowing for the pollsters’ proven tendency to always over-state the Labour…

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Will the Tories’s new Campaign Chief adopt his winning Australian strategies? The appointment of the Australian campaigning guru, Lynton Crosby, as the Conservative’s Election campaign director should cause all political gamblers to look closely at their General Election betting. For Crosby was the strategist behind the remarkable campaign in 1996 when the Australian Liberal party pulled off a surprise victory in the General Election there by all but conceding that the party had no chance of beating the Government of…

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