The Tory chairman Liam Fox has suggested that Tony Blair might “cut and run” and call a snap election. One date pencilled in by Mr Fox’s team is April 21 – two weeks earlier than the widely tipped May 5 – and campaign workers have been ordered on to full alert. Fox has been quoted as saying: “I believe there are a number of reasons why Labour needs to get this election out of the way early. “They are over-borrowing…
Sending a message that’s only heard by the target audience The real reflection of the state the Tories are in is that if they make the magic number of 200 seats it will be seen as some kind of victory. Yet even at that level Tony Blair would be returned with an overall majority of more than 70 – sufficient to sustain the party for a full third time. It’s against this background that the poll moves after last week’s…
UKIP’s decline and immigration give Howard a boost Punters who have been backing the Tories on the spread-betting markets in the past few days have been vindicated by the latest YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the party 3% up on last Sunday. The figures are: LAB 35% (+1): CON 34 (+3): LD 22 (-3): OTH 9 (-1) Interestingly the change has come from the Lib Dems and not Labour which has gone up. It might be that part of…
For the second day running the spread-betting price on the number of MPs that punters think the party will get at the coming election has moved upwards. After yesterday’s two seat rise IG Index have added a further seat at the expense of Labour. Today’s spreads are:- LAB 356-363 (-1): CON 186-193 (+1): LDs 71-75. We do not know whether this is as a result of more money going on or just a precautionary step by the firm in advance…
What’s the “master of the dark political arts” up to? Why are the pundits and politicians taking at face value the stories that the Tories’ Australian campaign guru, Lytton Crosby (above) has allegedly told Michael Howard that the Tories cannot win? Given that the 48-year-old who was brought to the UK by the Tory leader last autumn has been described as a “master of the dark political arts†and “the Australian Karl Rove,†surely the wise course is to treat…
Not a good weekend for the Tory leader A double blow for Michael Howard this weekend looks set to put even greater pressure on the Conservative price on the General Election spread betting markets. Firstly came the news that the former Higher Education minister, Robert Jackson, has defected to the Labour party. Secondly a new Populus poll in the News of the World shows that the Tories are falling back in the key marginal seats that they need to win…
APOLOGIES FOR EARLIER TECHNICAL PROBLEMS The great consolation for Labour with its current problems is that the Tories remain completely stuck. The following show the average annual opinion poll ratings from ICM for the Conservatives over the past ten years and although there has been a small improvement the figures remain pretty consistent. 1995 29% 1996 30.4% 1997 29.2% (General Election 31.4%) 1998 29.6% 1999 30% 2000 32.5% (excluding petrol crisis surveys) 2001 31.25% (General Election 32.7%) 2002 31.2% 2003…
…or will the price slip further Following the decline of the Tories in the spread betting markets and the new version of the Martin Baxter seat calculator with a tactical unwind element a number of people have asked whether we consider that the party is now a good buy. We think that the current spread level is based on the depressed opinion poll ratings for the party and the ongoing poor publicity that Michael Howard is getting. We do not…