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Category: Tories

Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Ousted leader: “threatening to leave the party” With the Tories gearing themselves up for an intense autumn when it will be decided whether Michael Howard’s successor should be elected by a ballot of the party membership the man ousted by the parliamentary party in October 2003, Ian Duncan Smith, is reported to be threatening to resign his membership. According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning IDS has “told colleagues that he will take the extraordinary step if two people he…

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Will David Davis get hit by the favourite’s “curse”?

Will David Davis get hit by the favourite’s “curse”?

How long will the smiles last? One of the rules of Tory leadership contests is that the early favourite never wins. We thought that the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, was going to buck this trend as the money piled on him during June and early July pushing the implied probability represented by his betting price to nearly 62%. This has moved back sharply and is only just above evens – at a 52% chance. We’ve observed before in this…

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How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

Davis’s challengers – RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox Clarke and Fox barely make an impact The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis. Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders…

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Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Can the veteran Europhile make it in a party of Europhobes? To many of his supporters Ken Clarke’s greatest strength is that like on the EU, or his link with a tobacco company the former Chancellor has never been prepared to tone down his positions in order win political popularity. What a contrast, they say, with Tony Blair and New Labour. On the face of it the moves to give a bigger role to Tory MPs in the leadership selection…

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The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

Can he still get to the top? With Tory MPs due to vote on how the leadership contest should operate doubts have started to develop in the betting markets over whether the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, will do it. For the first time since the election “was declared” punters are moving against Davis and the most popular current bet is on him not doing it. The 2005 Tory leadership race is the first one to be held since the…

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In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

I cannot remember whether I had a bet on the 1970 General Election but if I did I certainly did not foresee the extraordinary victory of Edward Heath’s Conservative party. Everybody had written him off and Harold Wilson, it is said, had not even put in place the most rudimentary of removal plans in case he had to get out of Number 10. Whenever people talk about election certainties I always think of Heath’s achievement. His term in office was…

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When will voters stop hating the Tories?

When will voters stop hating the Tories?

Has the party moved on since Theresa May’s “nasty party” judgement? At the 2002 Tory party conference the then Chair, Theresa May, stunned delegates by telling them that..There’s a way to go before we can return to government. There’s a lot we need to do in this party of ours. Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies, You know what some people call us: the nasty party” Nearly three years on from that speech the Cheadle…

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Has David Davis got the Politicalbetting bug?

Has David Davis got the Politicalbetting bug?

Tory leadership. BLACK=David Davis: RED=David Cameron: BLUE=Ken Clarke It’s now down to 2/5 on the Shadow Home Secretary Our new way of presenting betting odds charts in terms of implied probability has been warmly welcomed by site users including one Wat Tyler, the first person to comment on our Cheadle chart yesterday, who asked if we could do the same on the Tory leadership race. The best betting prices have seen a steady build-up of the David Davis position since…

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