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Category: Tories

The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

Tory leadership betting: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But what if the rule changes are rejected? With the Labour Conference, the Scottish by-elections and the announcement on Tuesday of whether the Howard changes to the Tory leadership rules have gone through it’s the biggest week in British politics since the General Election in May. For the Tory leadership our latest chart shows further a improvements in the implied probability of David Davis winning based on the latest…

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Now the Tories talk of a coalition with the Lib Dems

Now the Tories talk of a coalition with the Lib Dems

Will Maude’s frank comments boost Kennedy and rebound on the Tories? With Charles Kennedy due to make his crucial leader’s speech at Blackpool today the chairman of the Tory party, Francis Maude, has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons by suggesting that his party could form a coalition with the Lib Dems if the next General Election produced an indecisive result. In an interview in the Independent this morning Maude is quoted as saying “…You look round the country and…

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The David Davis lead gets bigger

The David Davis lead gets bigger

Tory Leadership – RED Davis: BLUE Cameron: BLACK Clarke: GREEN Fox ..and a “no-brainer Tory leadership bet Our updated chart showing the implied probabilities of the front-runners in the Tory leadership contest based on the best betting prices available will provide considerable cheer to David Davis supporters – particularly his web cheer leader, the so-called Wat Tyler, who asked specifically for it to be published. The Ken Clarke progress has faltered in the past few days following Davis’s big speech…

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Alastair Campbell goes for David Davis

Alastair Campbell goes for David Davis

Is the former spin-master just playing games? In a Labour view of the Tory leadership candidates in the Times this morning Alastair Campbell makes a scathing attack on Ken Clarke, dismisses David Cameron as a toff, and ends up concluding that David Davis will be the likely winner. It should be noted that Campbell and Davis are known to be on relatively good terms although the former Number 10 PR boss states that the Shadow Home Secretary is “.. is…

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YouGov – Davis and Clarke are neck and neck

YouGov – Davis and Clarke are neck and neck

Revised 1315 Could the members poll that got it right in 2001 be right this time as well? A YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning shows that the gap between David Davis and Ken Clarke is much closer than the betting odds suggests and that by one measure the former Chancellor is ahead. This poll has to be taken seriously because in 2001 a similar survey by YouGov predicted a 61:39 split between Ian Duncan…

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Time to cut your losses on Cameron

Time to cut your losses on Cameron

Has the bubble finally burst for the young Etonian? If punters have got this right then the tide has turned in the Tory leadership race with the former Chancellor, Ken Clarke, establishing himself as the main challenger to the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis. The chart showing implied probability based on best betting odds now has Clarke RED at levels never achieved by Cameron BLUE during the three months when he was the clear second favourite. The big loser from…

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Make money on the Ken Clarke rollercoaster

Make money on the Ken Clarke rollercoaster

revised 0800 ICM and Populus surveys send punters to Clarke again The above chart showing the implied probability of Ken Clarke winning the Tory leadership based on best betting prices illustrates the amazing volatility that there is in the markets over the former Chancellor’s prospects. After making a lot of progress following his speech last week attacking the Government on the Iraq war the Clarke price moved out sharply after weekend press comment was dismissive of his chances. Then came…

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Meet the man who decided the last Tory leadership contest

Meet the man who decided the last Tory leadership contest

Does David Davis regret his sacrifice in October 2003? While Tories deliberate on whether MPs or party members should have the final say over the leadership it is worth recalling that 23 months ago the decision, for all intents and purposes, was made by just one man, the current favourite, David Davis. For it was his withdrawal from the race on October 29th, just 90 minutes after IDS had been ousted, that led to the former Home Secretary getting the…

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