This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull? The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet,…
What’s the political impact of power seeping away from Labour One of the greatest weapons in the armoury of any government is that it has power. It can use it to influence the media agenda and, of course, to further its political position. But is that starting to change with the growing realisation that is is not as strong as it was? In a Times comment this morning Sam Coates makes this acute observation: “The Mayor of London’s decision to…
Can we really envisage him being at Number 10? One thing that we are learning from the McCain-Obama battle in the US is that instant reactions by the media and professional commentators are not always the best guide to the public’s mood. Thus a week ago the first debate was scored by most of the experts as being a McCain win or a tie – yet the polling this week has been all towards the Democratic contender. So I’m holding…
Does a 16%-20% margin seem like a value bet? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has put up a range of markets linked to David Cameron’s big conference speech tomorrow – the most interesting being the one featured in the panel above – what polling lead will the Tories have in the first post-big speech survey? After some consultation with me this will be settled on the basis of the party shares in the first YouGov poll where the fieldwork starts after…
Could it be a game-changer for Labour? There was an emergency statement by David Cameron at the Tory conference this morning in which he sought to look statesmanlike and ensure that his party cannot be portrayed by Labour as opponents of tighter regulation. It will also mean that he gets onto the bulletins during what will be a highly charged day. The key point was an an announcement that the party would be withdrawing its objection to aspects of a…
Aren’t Votes are votes whatever the motivation? In the Times today Peter Riddell is arguing that the latest Populus poll suggests that the prospective Conservative vote at the next general election is “soft” because a large proportion say it’s because they are anti-Labour rather than being pro-Tory. The figures show that of the Tory voters in the poll just 56% said they would do so because they are pro-Tory while 44% are just anti-Labour This compares with Labour supporters where…
Why understanding 1997 is the key to the 2010 result? There’s a widespread perception that in 1997 Tony Blair got his massive landslide victory because huge numbers of Tories switched. This is wrong and does not fit with the voting numbers – for Labour won even though it got fewer votes than Neil Kinnock secured five years earlier. In 1992 Labour chalked up 11,559,735 votes. Five years later Tony Blair got in with his party getting a smaller number 11,348,623….
Can we now expect fierce full-frontal attacks? What could be the most significant UK political development of the weekend was the news that Brown’s PR guru, Stephen Carter, has been “moved on”. This, according to James Forsyth of the Spectator Coffee House blog, could herald a major shift in Number 10s approach because Carter was a keen advocate of a more softly softly approach, particularly to David Cameron. He writes:”In recent weeks, Carter has been advocating not trying to tear…