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Category: Tories

Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

Will the Tory EPP withdrawal derail Lisbon?

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What are the mechanics of the next nine months? Ireland’s second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will take place on 2 October. Assuming it’s passed what happens next could have consequences for the UK election. Three other countries have yet to ratify. In Germany there’s a legal challenge to the Constitutional Court and secondly – and as a result of the ruling from that challenge – the need to amend some domestic legislation. That is currently scheduled to be done…

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Labour pull back back 2 points with YouGov

Labour pull back back 2 points with YouGov

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CON 42 (nc) LAB 28 (+2) LD 17 (-1) Another survey within the margin of error When we has the last YouGov survey in Monday’s Telegraph the main news was that Labour had dropped a couple of points. Well tonight’s poll for the Sun has Brown’s party back at 28% but the movement is well within the margin of error so you cannot conclude very much. Amongst other figures the paper reports: “Voters also say Mr Cameron would make a…

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Is this going to get off the ground?

Is this going to get off the ground?

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Sky News What’ll be the impact on the campaign? Things seem to be moving over a TV debate between the three main leaders during the general election campaign. There are reports that David Frost could be the chairman while Sky News has launched its own campaign. Is it going to happen? The challenge is that this could play such a vital role in the campaign that Cameron, Clegg and Brown (assuming it is he) have to be ultra-cautious. This would…

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MORI: Economic optimism rises to John Major levels

MORI: Economic optimism rises to John Major levels

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Article Updated 1855 Ipsos-Mori But remember what happened on May 1 1997? The above chart from MORI shows the changing to responses since 1997 to its economic optimism question which has been asked in the same manner for several decades. As can be seen there’s been a sharp rise in recent months and now the numbers are showing a net positive. Twelve years ago, just after the election, the trend continued and it touched +28 points – last month it…

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Could Gord pull off another conference coup?

Could Gord pull off another conference coup?

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Why I’m not risking any cash at the moment? Over the past four months I have studiously avoided the spread betting markets on the number of seats each of the parties will get at the next election – something that’s felt very strange because for years this has been my main betting arena. My Labour sell and Lib Dem buy contracts have been closed down at reasonable profits as I have waited to see how things look in for the…

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How much are tax-payers funding political parties already?

How much are tax-payers funding political parties already?

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BBC IPlayer Michael Crick’s programme is a must listen I’ve just picked up on BBC IPlayer this great Radio 4 investigation by Michael Crick on the funding of political parties and the rise of what he calls “The Political Club”. The programme blurb goes: “Michael Crick reveals how politicians are increasingly becoming a professionalised and separate class, who use their status to channel taxpayers’ money into the coffers of their parties. The recent scandal over MPs’ expenses has revealed how…

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Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?

Will 2010 be the year of “Double Tactical Unwind”?

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Could the tactical switchers of ’97 now go straight to the Tories? One of aspects of the electorate that both the YouGov Scottish poll and this week’s GB survey from Angus-Reid have shown is the very distinctive approach to the Lockerbie bomber release by Lib Dem voters. This is symptomatic I believe of their approach to politics generally and why what they think and do at elections can have a disproportionate impact at general elections. We saw that in 1997…

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Can Brown take hope from Major in 1992?

Can Brown take hope from Major in 1992?

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Could the polls be as wrong now as they were then? If there is one precedent that could provide some hope for Brown Central it is John Major’s surprise victory in the general election of April 9th 1992. In the year or so beforehand the Tory government’s by-election performance was even worse than Labour’s at the moment and with the exception of one or two polls all the pollsters were pointing to a dead heat in vote numbers as the…

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