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Category: Tories

Is this the killer issue for Labour?

Is this the killer issue for Labour?

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Woodnewton Associates Even when things are going well their supporters are less certain Just look at the chart above which takes one series of numbers from the monthly Ipsos-MORI political monitors – the proportion of those saying they will support Labour and the Conservatives at the next election who are “100% certain to vote”. The period covered is the past fifteen months and includes times when Labour has been doing badly, like at the moment, and times when they are…

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A new Populus poll tonight…

A new Populus poll tonight…

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….but I’ll be otherwise engaged The big polling news this evening should be from Populus – the firm’s first public survey for nearly two months. Fieldwork for the last one finished on July 19th and the shares were C38-L26-LD20. The Tories, surely, must be hoping to be in the 40s like they are with all the other pollsters. I’ll be doing a full thread later but I’m tied up this evening with a big political event in Bedford where I…

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It’s almost no change with YouGov

It’s almost no change with YouGov

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CON 41 (+1) LAB 27 (nc) LD 17 (-1) Tories up one – LDs down one The striking consistency of national Westminster voting intention polls that we’ve seen all summer has continued with the latest YouGov survey for the Sunday Times. Tories up one the Lib Dems down one is the sum total of the movement – all within the margin of error. The online pollster has been showing the biggest Labour shares of all the firms during the past…

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What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

What does this say about the Brown – Cameron battle?

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Woodnewton Associates How predictive are leader aprroval ratings six months out? The above table has been prepared by pollling analyst Mark Gill and appears on the Gary Gibbon blog on the Channel 4 website. Using Gallup Poll leader approval data for 1959 – 1974 and Ipsos MORI for 1979 – 2009 it seeks to show the extent to which those those numbers were predictive from six months out before the election. Just look at it election by election and then…

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The Cameron Circus comes to town

The Cameron Circus comes to town

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Is he now facing up to to reality of what lies ahead? This evening I attended (that’s me in the blue shirt in the second row) a Cameron Direct town hall meeting in Bedford when the Tory leader fielded questions that hadn’t been submitted in advance from an audience which I guessed was less than 50% Conservative. This is all part of the by-election campaign that’s going on for the town’s elected mayor where his party is holding an open…

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Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

Is this how Labour could be polling without Brown?

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UKPollingReport Remember the days when a hung parliament seemed a certainty? With all the talk about Brown being ousted or stepping down I’ve just been asked by a journalist how I thought Labour would do in the polls if there was a different leader. My starting point was the table above – the polls from the five months before Brown became leader and Prime Minister on June 27 2007. Just looking at the actual numbers came as something as a…

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Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

Does this poll show the impact of Farage/UKIP?

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CON 40 (-2) LAB 27 (-1) LD 18 (+1) Tories down to 40% with YouGov The online pollster, YouGov, which has taken such a dominant position in UK polling, has another survey out this morning which might cause some concern at Cameron Central. For although the party is still in the 40s it is only just there and the lead over Labour is down to its lowest since June. We have not got details of the fieldwork period or a…

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How valid are ConHome’s polls?

How valid are ConHome’s polls?

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Shouldn’t they be joining the British Polling Council? It’s become almost a regular occurrence. ConservativeHome (or ContinuityIDS as we used to call it) carries out a survey and up pops Tim Montgomerie to talk as though he is the official voice of the party’s grass-roots. But how much attention should we give to his polling? Are samples, for instance, weighted in line with the known demographics of the audience he is testing? What weightings are used? What is the precise…

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