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Category: Tories

Which Tories will need to watch their backs for Rory?

Which Tories will need to watch their backs for Rory?

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Could he take over if it goes pear-shaped for Dave? I’ve just listened on catch-up to last Friday’s edition of Radio 4’s Any Questions when the newly-selected Tory PPC for Penrith, Rory Stewart, had to stand in at the last minute. We’ve featured the multi-talented Mr. Stewart before and even though he’s not yet an MP he’s listed by both PaddyPower and Ladbrokes in their markets for next Tory leader. The former has him as fourth favourite at a pretty…

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What’s this going to do to the campaign?

What’s this going to do to the campaign?

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SkyNews Why’s Cameron taking such a gamble? So now we have it. British election campaigns are never going to be the same again. For the long push by the broadcasters to get live TV debates between the three main leaders seems to have succeeded. ITV will host the first chaired by Alistair Stewart; Sky has the second with Adam Boulton while the final one will be a BBC affair with David Dimbleby in the che chair. Each programme will last…

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Will tactical voting keep most of these orange?

Will tactical voting keep most of these orange?

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York Outer – 0.44% (Lab 27%) Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%) Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%) Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%) Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%) Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%) Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%) Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%) Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%) Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%) Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%) Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%) Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%) Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%) Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%) Portsmouth…

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And now the Choccy Horror Show!

And now the Choccy Horror Show!

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Could the Mirror’s splash damage the Tories? Thanks to one or two contributors on the overnight thread for picking up this – the main story in the Mirror . For after a day which saw Gordon Brown at his most confident for months the paper’s exclusive, presumably from publicly available material, is that amongst the receipts in Cameron’s claims were those for four or five chocolate bars. These were under Cameron’s claims for his administrative and office allowance As the…

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Could a climate change split undermine Dave’s chances?

Could a climate change split undermine Dave’s chances?

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How dangerous is the issue for the Tories? Only days before the Copenhagen climate summit Andrew Grice in the Independent is reporting what’s said to be growing split between many parts of the Tory party and its leadership on the issue. It will be recalled that just four years ago one of Cameron’s first acts as leader was to take a lead on climate change as part of his effort to try to modernise his party and there was that…

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Could UKIP switchers cost Dave his majority?

Could UKIP switchers cost Dave his majority?

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But will it be the same in the marginals? Just looking at the detailed data for the latest ComRes poll and we see the dynamic that is causing the Tory totals to fall and is putting into question what seemed to be the forgone conclusion of a Tory majority. For helpfully the firm is the only one of the pollsters where it’s possible to see the switching to the minor parties from what respondents said they did at the general…

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Are UKIP and the Lisbon driving the Tory poll decline?

Are UKIP and the Lisbon driving the Tory poll decline?

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BBC news – Nov 4th Can Dave win back the Tory doubters? All seventeen polls published between the end of the Tory Party conference and Cameron’s dropping of his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty had the Conservatives on at least 40%; of the eight published since then, only twice has the Tory share broken into the forties. Two conversations I’ve had in the last week give anecdotal evidence that Cameron’s move has gone down badly in…

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Does dropping out of the 40s safety zone matter?

Does dropping out of the 40s safety zone matter?

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What does it mean for the election outcome? I’m not sure whether there’ll be any new polls in the Sunday papers and it would be really good to see a new ICM survey. For the big trend in the past few few weeks has been the decline of the Tory share into the 30s so that now only ICM is showing a figure above that threshold. Polls tend to move in step changes and that might be what we have…

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