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The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

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This must be the most worrying poll finding for the Tories at the moment. They appear divided. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 It has been said many times before that the one thing that is a big turn-off for voters is for a party to appear divided. This arguably has a much greater impact on electoral outcomes than a particular stance on a specific issue. So the big danger for the Tories in the same sex marriage…

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Replacing Cameron? The polling is clear – Dave is liked more than his party

Replacing Cameron? The polling is clear – Dave is liked more than his party

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A reminder to Tory leadership plotters: The party is a drag on Dave not the other way round – See Ipsos-MORI polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Ladbrokes move the “Dave’ll be out” before #GE2015 odds in from 10/1 to 7/1. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Nadine Dorries says that one of these 4 is likely to be Cameron’s successor

Nadine Dorries says that one of these 4 is likely to be Cameron’s successor

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Nadine’s 4 to follow for the CON leadership: Boris 7/2, Gove 15/2,Norman & Afriyie 33/1telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2013 After the big headline in several papers today about the leadership ambitions of Windor MP, Adam Afriyie, Nadine Dorries has been giving her advice. The two names who are least known as Jesse Norman (leader of the Lords rebellion which cost the blues the boundary changes & 20 seats) and Adam Afriyie who is said to be…

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The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

The Cameron EU speech: Michael Ashcroft gives his verdict

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Michael Ashcroft says the more they talk about EU the less likely the Tories have got of a Gen Elect victory twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 23, 2013 Is he right about the dangers for his party? This is from his blog – Lord Ashcroft polls:- “..As I found in my research published last month, Europe is not much of a priority even for those who say they might vote UKIP; the EU is just one of the (many)…

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What does the future hold for Boris

What does the future hold for Boris

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It certainly has been an extra-ordinary year for Boris, from winning re-election as Mayor of London, in what is supposedly a Labour city, whilst belonging to a party, that as a government had just delivered a double dip recession. Winning allowed him to be Mayor during the Olympics, where he mocked Mitt Romney, to the adulation of many, and he was associated with the feel good factor that the Olympics brought, so much so, he upstaged The Prime Minister. This…

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Henry G Manson asks: Can Cameron win ethnic minority votes with candidates alone?

Henry G Manson asks: Can Cameron win ethnic minority votes with candidates alone?

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According to reports yesterday the Conservative Party wants to increase its efforts to woo ethnic voters ahead of the election. This, alongside gay marriage, appears to be the second lesson George Osborne took from the recent US Presidential election. The Independent understands the initial aim seems to be to increase the number of minority parliamentary candidates. Conservatives currently have 11 MPs from an ethnic minority background compared to Labour who have 13. The Liberal Democrats, somewhat incredibly, have zero. It…

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Why I think that Andrew Mitchell might, just might, become a Tory leadership contender when a vacancy occurs

Why I think that Andrew Mitchell might, just might, become a Tory leadership contender when a vacancy occurs

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The narrative is running strongly in his favour Yesterday afternoon and evening I reinvested some of the money I’d made on two Andrew Mitchell bets from the autumn on him becoming the next Tory leader. I got prices up to 70/1 on Betfair. I’d already made a bit on him in the cabinet exit betting when he was switched in the September re-shuffle to Chief Whip – a post that is not formally a member of the cabinet. Then my…

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Our third “Would they do better at the election without” survey – Tory rebels

Our third “Would they do better at the election without” survey – Tory rebels

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Is Cameron’s task being made harder by the splits? Would the Tories win more seats at the General Election if rebellious back-benchers kept quiet for the next 29 months? YES – voters are more reluctant to support parties that appear split NO – the issues over which rebellions have taken place are too important for Tory MPs to be silent It makes no difference