Browsed by
Category: Tories

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

Comments 0 Comment

IfCON 2010 voters who are now “don’t know” return then #GE2015 could be lot closer. See pie chart fromICM data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 Why GE2015 could be closer than it now looks One of the biggest challenges when analysing voting intention polls is the very high level of “will vote – don’t knows” that we see. These totals are generally higher in ICM polls because the form of questioning is much less judgemental than with…

Read More Read More

This is starting to look a bit like November 1990 when Mrs. Thatcher was brought down

This is starting to look a bit like November 1990 when Mrs. Thatcher was brought down

Comments 0 Comment

Suddenly the race to replace Dave as CON leader goes public as Gove lashes out at Theresa May Ladbrokes move Gove out to 10/1 as next CON leader while others make May the 4/1 FAV.gu.com/p/3ed4v/tw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013 Michael Gove rounds on ‘disloyal’ Theresa May in extraordinary Cabinet outburst. Home Sec refuses to respond. Full story in Mail tomorrow — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) March 12, 2013 How the Mail is reporting the Gove-May skirmish…

Read More Read More

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

Comments 0 Comment

The Eastleigh third place has just added to the gloom The Times leads on the ConHome survey suggesting that most Tories think #GE2015 is already lost. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 The Times is reporting that a Conhome survey found that just 7% ofCON members believe that the party come win a majority at #GE2015 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 75% of those in a Conhome survey reported in Times believe that Labour,either in coalition…

Read More Read More

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

Comments 0 Comment

The 2013 locals – look at how the Tories are defending the most and have most to lose.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2013 This could/should be the big chance for Farage’s Ukip On Thursday May 2nd the Tories face a massive test at this year’s local elections. The Wikipedia infographic sets it out – the blues will be defending 1.531 seats, the LDs 484 and Labour a paltry 178. The vast bulk of contests will be for…

Read More Read More

It is time to rule Michael Gove out of the Dave replacement betting

It is time to rule Michael Gove out of the Dave replacement betting

Comments 0 Comment

Only Osborne of potential Cameron alternatives polls worse than Michael Gove – yet he’s is 8/1 2nd betting favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2013 He’s simply too unpopular with Tory voters The above is taken from the latest Sunday Times YouGov survey and was one of a number of findings in the poll that raises question marks over whether Michael Gove could be a serious contender to replace Dave. Although the question format is not one I’m…

Read More Read More

New Ipsos-MORI poll has LAB ahead on “Europe”

New Ipsos-MORI poll has LAB ahead on “Europe”

Comments 0 Comment

LAB has “best policies” on Europe according to new Ipsos-MORI poll. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2013 And 28% of of GE2010 CON voters say Ukip’s got best policies Just 48% of #GE2010 CON voters told Ipsos-MORI that their party has best policies on Europe. Worryingly for the blues 28% said Ukip. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 4, 2013

Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Dave

Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Dave

Comments 0 Comment

    Are we entering the twilight of the leadership of Davewww7.politicalbetting.com/?p=56969 twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEPB (@TSEofPB) February 28, 2013 Michael Crick, the other day tweeted From talking to more voters today I increasingly think UKIP could pull of a surprise victory in Eastleigh.They will certainly do very well — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 26, 2013 Whilst the Lib Dems were said to be Lib Dems “feeling good” about Eastleigh but admit going to be “blooming close”. Senior source says they…

Read More Read More

Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

Will Welsh Secretary David Jones be the next to go?

Comments 0 Comment

David Jones, Welsh Secretary at centre of gay marriage row, now 6/1 FAV for next Cabinet exit bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2013 David Herdson assesses his survival chances The Secretaries of State for Wales is amongst the most invisible of cabinet ministers. Partly that’s because the London media never gives as much attention to events outside the capital as within it but mainly it’s because he doesn’t have much of a job to do with the…

Read More Read More