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MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t

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Check this YouGov polling – Europe has little salience Quite simply there are too few potential converts Judging by the intensity of many backbench CON MPs over the EU referendum issue you’d have thought that they firmly believe if only they could get this sorted it would be the magic bullet that would ensure their re-election at GE2015. The blunt fact is that it isn’t. For the vast bulk of voters Europe, even those saying UKIP as the chart shows,…

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The “Plebgate Aftermath”: A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on

The “Plebgate Aftermath”: A Sutton Coldfield by-election could now be nailed on

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http://t.co/Mjk8tWGtRK http://t.co/fvMSatzc3U — PolPics (@PolPics) January 12, 2014 Will Mitchell be resigning this year anyway? The guilty plea in the trial of the PC who falsely made up evidence about the Plebgate affair has been used by Andrew Mitchell’s friends as vindication of his position.  It’s not quite that – if he wasn’t there then the substance of what was said remains disputed – but it hasn’t done anything for the police case. Demands for Mitchell’s reinstatement to cabinet would…

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Labour believes that Gove has become the Tories’ weakest link

Labour believes that Gove has become the Tories’ weakest link

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Observer front page lead http://t.co/EQ72wB7tlf — PolPics (@PolPics) January 5, 2014 Get ready for more attacks on him like the latest by Tristram Hunt Both Labour and Lib Dem strategists have told me in recent months that they now regard the education secretary, Michael Gove, as the Conservative party’s biggest electoral liability. The newly published YouGov polling showing Labour with a 41% lead amongst this voter group underlines the view that there’s a big benefit to be had in attacking…

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It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

It’s 2014 prediction time: Will it be another year when the Tories fail to secure a lead?

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How many times will ICM, last to report CON ahead, have one in 2014? On how many occasions during 2014 will the Guardian’s monthly ICM phone poll report a CON lead 11-12 polls 9-10 polls 7-8 polls 5-6 polls 3-4 polls 1-2 polls NONE      This from March 2012 was last to have CON ahead Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB

Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

Theresa May tops Boris for the first time in CONHome survey as preferred next party leader

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This could mean something or it could mean nothing but the December CONHome survey of party members sees a change at the top as preferred next party leader. This is the first time that the state school educated Home Secretary has been in this position in the site’s monthly survey of members. This might take on increasing importance over the next 18 months – for we could be less than a year away from the next contest. In recent times…

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Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

Unless the weekend polling produces a shock 2013 will be the first year since 2002 that the Tories didn’t record a lead in any opinion poll

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The Tories have yet to record a lead in any opinion poll this year. The last year this happened was 2002. — Simon (@simonk133) December 19, 2013 I saw this Tweet earlier and thought I’d check it out. It is correct. At some point in every single year from 2003 to 2012 the Tories recorded at least one lead. On two occasions they’ve been level-pegging and this week they got within 2%. What this means electorally we’ll have to wait…

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Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

Boris must be able to stand for the Tory leadership

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Do the parties need to review their eligibility criteria?   Two things stand out from a quick glance at the odds for the next PM.  The first is that Ed Miliband (8/11, Ladbrokes), is rated about ten times more likely to be next to get the job than anyone else.  That’s not too surprising: he’s secure in his own position, Labour has had a steady lead in the polls for most of the parliament now and a built-in advantage in…

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ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

ConHome survey: Tory party members getting more gloomy about their prospects for GE 2015

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Paul Goodman of ConHome reports today on the latest survey of how Conservative party members assess their chances for the next general election. The totals in the chart above aggregate those expecting a majority (now 20%), those expecting a CON minority government (19%) and those who think that there’ll be another coalition (16%). Interestingly the 20% CON majority segment is quite close to the latest trades on the Betfair GE2015 outcome market. The chart tracks very much the percieved impact…

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