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Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

Post-reshuffle leadership betting: The new Foreign Secretary comes into the picture

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The Ladbrokes 14/1 looks good value The big winner in the reshuffle is, undoubtedly, the new Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, who, with Theresa May, have been my long term bets at longish odds for Cameron’s successor. I got him originally at 41/1 and overnight I’ve put more on at 16.5 on Betfair and 14/1 with Ladbrokes This looks a great price for someone who now occupies one of the three great offices of State and would be in an ideal…

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The Reshuffle

The Reshuffle

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Looks like the big political news of the day isn’t the Blues taking the lead with the gold standard of UK polling, but the reshuffle David Cameron is currently undertaking. The big news is William Hague standing down as Foreign Secretary. 1/2 I'd like to pay an enormous tribute to @WilliamJHague who is standing down as an MP at the next election. — David Cameron (@David_Cameron) July 14, 2014 2/2 Until then, I'm delighted he'll remain my de facto political…

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If the Tories do win more votes than LAB but get fewer seats then let there be no bleating about the system being unfair

If the Tories do win more votes than LAB but get fewer seats then let there be no bleating about the system being unfair

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That’s the system that they campaigned hard to retain in 2011 If current broad poll trends continue and some of the CON-Ukip shifters return then it is likely that my 8/1 bet that that Tories will win most votes but come second to LAB on seats will be a winner. Broadly the 2010 LD switchers to LAB are staying relatively solid and the returnees could boost the CON aggregate national vote share as we get closer to polling day. The…

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Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

Was Theresa May on manoeuvres and did it cost her SPAD her job?

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Mail on Sunday front page – “Tory bloodbath over Muslim schools fiasco” #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/VrCxEe5xSK — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) June 7, 2014 Today’s front pages don’t make great reading for the Tories, and in particular Theresa May or Michael Gove. The Sunday Times reports (££) The row exposed deep rifts within the cabinet. Two cabinet ministers accused May of running a “tiresome” and “obvious” leadership campaign, picking a fight with Gove to boost her hopes of succeeding Cameron if he…

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Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

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English council results so far via the BBC. pic.twitter.com/a1qcl07rZ3 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 Like opinion polls, it is wise not to focus on one or two councils, but look at the broader picture. Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections…

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Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

Remember that even Tony Blair with all his magic was never able to lead New Labour to victory in the Euro elections

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The closed list PR system has never worked for the red team The Westminster polling above is from May 1999 when Tony Blair’s New Labour was riding high and William Hague’s Tories were struggling to make an impact. At the time those sorts of 20%+ poll leads were common place and, as we all know, two years later New Labour went on to win a second huge landslide victory only a few seats down on 1997. Yet success in the…

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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

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In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…

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The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

The Shapps Tweet ad could be as damaging as Liam Byrne’s “there’s no money left” handover note

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The CON bingo poster came from party chairman Grant Shapps See this from his Twitter page pic.twitter.com/ekOCIBa3a9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 20, 2014 Both resonate because they reinforce perceptions We all remember the famous Liam Byrne hand-over note in May 2010 telling his successor at the Treasury that there’s no money left. That struck home because it touched a widespread view of the LAB approach to public spending. The Grant Shapps Tweet poster is damaging because it touches directly on…

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