William Hill have a market on whether Mrs May being Prime Minister for longer than the country’s first female Prime Minister. To be honest I’m not enthused by either option. To win the 10/1, you’d be tying up your money for the next eleven years, I can think of better things to do with my money than given William Hill an interest free loan for eleven years. For this bet to pay out Mrs May would have to win the…
Embed from Getty Images There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures. Julius Caesar Act 4, scene 3, 218–224 Whatever else you think of Brexit, we are being led by powerful currents taking…
On the first PB/Polling Matters podcast of 2017 Keiran discusses the future of the Labour Party with the General Secretary of the Fabian Society Andrew Harrop. They discuss Corbyn’s recent rebrand as a left-wing populist and Labour’s mounting problems including Scotland, Brexit and the daunting electoral math faced in Westminster ahead of the presumed General Election in 2020 (and what to do about it). Keiran also takes us through some recent polling and explains why he thinks 2017 will be…
Most other mid-term boosts have dissolved after 6 months If the five years of this parliament were compressed into the space of a football match, we’d have only just reached the half-hour mark. It feels like longer, though that might be because there’s been a lot packed in: six leadership elections across the four main parties, a change of PM, an historic referendum, and Labour’s biggest crisis since at least the early 1980s. In the normal scheme of things, Labour…
I might be wrong but am yet to be convinced On the UK front next year looks set to be dominated by BREXIT – the process of extracting the UK from the EU. Doing this successfully is set to be the defining act of Theresa May’s premiership and even though the referendum decision was more than six months ago we still have little idea what this is going to mean. The PM has managed to keep up her strategy of…
From today’s Ipsos MORI phone poll for the Standard Con 40 (-2) Lab 29 (-4) LD 14 (+4) UKIP 9 (+2 GRN 3 (nc) Yellows getting biggest support in Southern England .@IpsosMORI regional splits LDsNorth 12%Midlands 11%South 18% London 13%Scotland 11%No separate figure for SW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2016 TMay heading for cross-over perhaps in her satisfaction ratings TMay net @IpsosMORI satisfaction levels declining. How long before she's showing a negative? pic.twitter.com/aJutaW1cCj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December…
Nuttal & Farron prices move out William Hill next party leader out betting with changes since Sunday 2/1 Corbyn 11/4 (5/2) Nuttall 11/4 (7/2) May 6/1 Sturgeon 7/1 (6/1) Farron There’s been quite a bit if activity on the William Hill first party leader out market with Paul Nuttlall’s price moving out and Theresa May’s moving in. The betting sentiment suggests that the PM might not be as secure as things appear. Certainly there’s been a fair bit of more…
Revenge is a Ferrero Rocher best served cold. Boris Johnson mocks Theresa May's leather 'lederhosen'. Gags in full: https://t.co/Te1nAx3Avw — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) December 13, 2016 Paul Waugh writes on HuffPost about tonight’s reception at Lancaster House, “In front of hundreds of diplomats from around the globe, he made a typically maverick speech hailing Brexit, while teased the PM on everything from foreign student numbers to Nigel Farage’s links with the US and even Heathrow’s third runway. But after…