This morning’s front pages after the night before
On Betfair it’s a 54% chance that she’ll be out in 2019 Q2 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Both TMay and Corbyn drop to record lows in YouGov’s favourability tracker
I always feel a sense of ownership with the YouGov favourability ratings for shortly after the referendum, in 2016, I got into a discussion with the pollster about a line of questioning that I suggested that the firm should do. My desire was favourability ratings on key figures. The first ones ran here as the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings when TMay had a net plus 12 while Corbyn was a net minus 25. This is calculated by subtracting the “unfavourable” responses from…
With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad less likely that she’ll be out soon
But it’s still a 67% chance that she’ll cease to be PM before Brexit There’s little doubt that just about the worst thing that Theresa May has done during her short Premiership was the broadcast to the nation five nights go when she appeared to blame Parliament for the problems in getting her brexit deal approved. It was that apparent denial of the democratic process that has angered a lot within the House and outside. More and more people are…
Even though TMay slumped to her worst ever Ipsos-MORI PM ratings & Corbyn has the second worst Opposition leader rating
Never have the views of both CON & LAB leaders been so poor Just out today is the latest Ipsos-MORI political monitor whicht has the Tories taking a lead of 4% over labour. Last time the two main parties were level pegging. Also, as ever, included are the firm’s leader satisfaction number a polling series that is now into its forty-third year. For the Corbyn and TMay the ratings are dreadful. The former has the second worst Opposition leader numbers…
At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena
In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit. Brexit positions cut across most parties, and MPs are clearly torn between their loyalties to their party, their electorate, their local members, the nation, the referendum result, and their consciences. But it is hard not to be cynical about how a number…
In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”
Betdata.io. chart based on Betfair exchange How punters are seeing the dramatic Brexit moves Given the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit it is understandable why an early General Election is relatively highly rated by punters. The chart above shows the betting over the past 6 months and although 2019 has been quite a bit higher, at 45%, it still retains its position as favourite even at 37%. Under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the next election is due…
What might the Tories learn from Labour
The Tories might well look at Labour’s current travails over anti-Semitism and sigh with relief. “At least we’re not as bad as that.” They would be wise not to be so complacent. Anti-Semitism is not confined to Corbyn’s Labour or to the Left in general. The attacks on Soros by some Tory-leaning papers, even Mrs May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech, echoed some pretty standard tropes about rootless disloyal cosmopolitan people somehow undermining good old native British culture. And there have been enough…
If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…