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Category: Theresa May

Why TMay should choose as HomeSec Nicky Morgan – the woman who criticised her £1000 leather trousers

Why TMay should choose as HomeSec Nicky Morgan – the woman who criticised her £1000 leather trousers

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This could make the passage of the Brexit Bill easier Two years ago Nicky Morgan got dropped from the cabinet and since then has been one of the most vocal and effective critics of the government’s Brexit policy. It has been said that there’s a huge gulf between them following an argument between her and the Prime Minister over the former’s criticism of Theresa May’s £1000 leather trousers. Since then Morgan has become one of the key senior players in…

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Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

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The YouGov favourability trackers are just about the only polling where we can compare leaders with their parties on the same basis. The same question is asked in exactly the same form to the same sample whether people have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of CON/LAB/TMay/Corbyn. It is also a tracker which is asked in the same form at regular intervals which means there are enough data points to examine trends. The movement in the leader and party ratings since…

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Punters still make next year the favourite for TMay to stand down

Punters still make next year the favourite for TMay to stand down

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Betdata.io In spite of all the talk about “leadership challenges” there’s been little change in the Betfair betting on when TMay will cease to be leader. Next year remains the solid 37% favourite with 2018 a 25% shot. A few weeks go I got 8/1 with a bookie that she’d be out this year which I regarded then as value. The latest prices don’t tempt me. But there is little doubt that she has done remarkably well to survive for…

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Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

Why the threat of a confidence vote on TMay has far less potency than it appears

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Talk of letters to Graham Brady is probably just talk It has been reported over the weekend that Mrs May could possibly face a challenge over the issue of whether Britain remains in a Customs Union after Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers are absolutely resolute that this should not happen and have been making vibes that should Mrs May concede what seems to be the position of Brussels then she could face a confidence vote. There are warnings about that in order…

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Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

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How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…

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If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

If the Windrush affair has an impact in the polls expect it to be seen most in the leader ratings not voting intention

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Could it reverse TMay’s steady recovery since GE2017? Above is a chart based on Opinium’s net approval ratings for the PM since GE2017. I choose this pollster because it is one of just two that just about always every month publish the latest leader ratings which gives us enough data points for analysis. I wish other firms would follow this lead. As can be seen TMay made something of a recovery in the immediate post-election period until October when the…

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If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

If TMay and Corbyn are still there at the next election then Windrush & antisemitism could still be dogging them

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These are leadership more than party issues What a dramatic few days for both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. Two huge issues continue to dominate the news which are big negatives for each of them respectively. The Windrush affair, which is being juxtaposed with the meeting of Commonwealth leaders, is a reminder of how Theresa May handled things when she was in the Home Office from 2010 to 2016. It was under her watch that the…

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The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

The commentators blaming TMay for the Windrush affair are right – she not ARudd but should be carrying the can

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The Windrush scandal is Theresa May’s creation, borne of an innate inability to equate ‘immigrant’ with ‘person’. It’s a hefty accusation, I know, but it makes sense of almost everything she’s done since 2010. Lying about a cat; Go Home vans; subsuming Ukip; EU citizens as cards. — James O'Brien (@mrjamesob) April 17, 2018 The arbitrary imprisonment of Paulette Wilson, aged 61, who lived lawfully in UK for 50 years is chilling. It could never happen in UK. That it…

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