Could 1997 have Been Worse for the Conservatives On polling day in 1997, I asked my association agent what result we could expect in Hertsmere, where we were defending a majority of 18,000. I can remember my shock when he told me that he wasn’t sure we could hold it, but if we did, it would only be by a couple of thousand (in the end, the Conservative majority was 3,000). Even after polls had closed, I could not believe…
What if There Were a By-Election in Old Bexley and Sidcup? Unlike Rod Crosby, I don’t anticipate a by-election in this seat. However, it’s worth giving some thought to what would happen if Derek Conway were to step down, and a by-election called. The seat itself is a mighty Conservative stronghold. Conway had a majority of nearly 10,000 over Labour in 2005. In the local elections of 2006, the Conservatives won all 24 council seats in the constituency, and took…
Could the Lib Dems Replace Labour? An electoral system based on First Past the Post forces voters to choose between two alternatives. Constituencies that are three (or even four) way marginals rarely remain in that position for very long. Sooner or later, they revert to a two way contest. Sometimes, the party that originally held the seat will be relegated to a distant third place. What is true at constituency level has historically been true at national level. There is…
The Far Right in the Midlands Last night, Labour held a seat which the Conservatives had expected to gain, at Ibstock and Heather, on North West Leicestershire District Council. The Conservatives had won two out of three seats in May 2007, in what had formerly been a very safe Labour ward. What seems to have prevented them winning the third seat was a very strong performance from the BNP, who contested the seat for the first time, and won second…
Focus on the South West The counties of Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Somerset, and Avon will generate some of the most interesting contests at the next election. This is because each of the three main parties is well-represented in this region, and because so many of the seats are marginals. Unusually, there is considerable support for UKIP here, who saved their deposit in 15 out of 38 seats in 2005. In 2005, the Liberal Democrats achieved pole position here, with 15…
By Election Round Up Over the past three months, there have been 29 by-elections in which all three main parties took part. 19 were in seats last contested in 2007, 7 in seats last contested in 2006, (mostly in London), 2 in 2005, and 1 in 2004. In all contests, the Conservatives made a net gain of 3 seats, Labour a net loss of 1 seat, the Liberal Democrats a net gain of 1 seat, and Others a net loss…
Was Gordon Brown Right to Back Out? It’s hard to imagine that two months ago, Labour were leading the Conservatives by 10-13% in opinion polls, on the back of a highly successful party conference, and momentum for an early election appeared unstoppable. Yet, instead of calling an election at, or straight after, his party conference, Gordon Brown waited for the Conservative Party to have their conference, enabling them to regain the initiative. Since then of course, very little has gone…
Why Can’t Labour Motivate Its Identifiers? Support for the parties, as measured by opinion polls, ebbs and flows over time, but one thing remains constant. More people identify with the Labour Party, even at times of great unpopularity, then identify with the Conservatives. The latest Communicate Research Poll is a good example of this. The Conservatives lead Labour by 40% to 27% in terms of voting intention, yet Labour lead the Conservatives by 28% to 24% in terms of voter…