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LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

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Wikipedia Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1 The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017. Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an…

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Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

Labour continues to struggle in Scotland where it used to hold 41 of the 59 seats

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But the low-hanging fruit for Corbyn’s party is still there There is a new Scottish poll out this morning and the picture remains gloomy for LAB. As can be seen Panelbase still has the party in third place behind, of course, the SNP and the Conservatives. What makes this particularly disappointing for Labour is that for decades Scotland was the bedrock of the party’a support throughout the UK and its dominance underpinned its parliamentary position. So at both 2005 and…

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Tipping point. Why Scotland’s ultimate independence now looks inevitable

Tipping point. Why Scotland’s ultimate independence now looks inevitable

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Wednesday was not one of those days when it was difficult to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance.  The SNP launched a choreographed flounce from the House of Commons following a spat between their leader Ian Blackford and the Speaker over the treatment of Scotland’s position in the Brexit debates. The government was quick to accuse the SNP of pulling a stunt and of manufacturing discontent.  It’s certainly true that the SNP haven’t exactly…

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Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised by the latest YouGov Scotland poll as Labour set to be reduced to just 1 Scottish MP, again

Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised by the latest YouGov Scotland poll as Labour set to be reduced to just 1 Scottish MP, again

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New @YouGov Scotland poll for @thetimesscot. https://t.co/P1mDnCQ5lQ pic.twitter.com/8K8yJFmC1u — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 By my reckoning this is a 2% increase for Yes and 2% decline for No when it comes to Scottish Independence since January. https://t.co/rpi9fvQLJ1 pic.twitter.com/TM1KYIMleZ — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 If you're wondering why Labour is doing badly in Scotland this is why. Corbyn's rating are sinking and so are Richard Leonard's ratings. pic.twitter.com/URakxDBzkh — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2018 But @RuthDavidsonMSP is still the…

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Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

Unless LAB can win back Scotland then there’s little chance of Corbyn becoming PM

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The latest Scotland only polls have LAB down in third place The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015. Five years earlier at GE2010 when Labour lost power there were, extraordinarily, no seat changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had…

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The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

The continuing strength of the SNP makes it is harder for Corbyn to become PM

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Scottish turbulence not good for the red team Today’s YouGov LAB members has one finding that shows the extraordinary optimism of those who backed Corbyn in the last leadership election. 80% of them told the poster that they believed that Mr Corbyn would at sometime become Prime Minister. Given his age and the current parliamentary situation that essentially means waiting till the next general election and requires two things to happen – Corbyn to retain the leadership and LAB to…

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Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

Boundary conditions. How Brexit might be helping to lay the ground for the SNP

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Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural. The boundary between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not come in that category. There are few obvious natural boundaries along the route. Donegal is almost cut off from the rest of…

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The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

The Tories look solidly back in third place in Scotland – the part of the UK which has seen the most seat turbulence

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Wikipedia How the parties are faring north of the border Next week I’m off to Scotland the part of the UK that played a critical part in the outcomes of GE2015 and GE2017. For since the IndyRef in September 2014 there has been a huge amount of turbulence in Scottish politics. At the last two general elections there’ve been more seats changing hands there than anywhere else in the UK. Initially the failure to win independence in September 2014 saw…

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