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Ipsos Mori poll on Scotland

Ipsos Mori poll on Scotland

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Ipsos-Mori have published their Scottish Public Opinion Monitor.   @IpsosMORI #IndyRef poll sees YES closing the gap Yes 34% (+3) No 57% (-2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) December 10, 2013   The fieldwork for this poll was entirely after the publication of the White Paper, and for those wondering if the White Paper had any effect on the electorate, Ipsos-Mori notes The White Paper itself appears to have had a marginal effect on voters’ views. Around one in five (18%)…

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Salmond’s blueprint launch: a very good week for No

Salmond’s blueprint launch: a very good week for No

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The SNP are making the same mistakes as Yes2AV One simple and obvious truth: in order to win a referendum, you need to win the support of more than half the people casting a vote.  This may be elementary politics it was something that the proponents of AV nonetheless failed to grasp, or at least, failed to act on (somewhat ironically, given the nature of their cause).  A second truth about referendums: those opposed to a proposition don’t have to…

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Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side?

Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side?

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Will it be English Tories that swings the IndyRef for the Yes Side? New PB Thread http://t.co/8YtUktuchO pic.twitter.com/Z7Zjjxkoc7 — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) November 29, 2013 On the love that might finally dare to speak its name. For those of us betting and/or wanting Scotland to vote for independence, bar one poll that was commissioned by the SNP, the general thrust of the recent polling hasn’t been favourable for us, so where will this surge in support for the Yes Side come from? In…

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On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

On the Betfair exchange punters are rating a victory for YES in the #IndyRef at 18.9pc

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On this big day for #IndyRef Betfair punters put the chance of Winning YES vote at 18.9% See chart pic.twitter.com/6wNdGL5zR3 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2013 Producer @amberskynews holds Scotland's Future in her arms pic.twitter.com/P0s3Vl7v6O — Adam Boulton (@adamboultonSKY) November 26, 2013 But the Bank of England remains the lender of last resort SNP White Paper on what might kinda happen when banks go phut pic.twitter.com/ImQMRgp9Qu h/t @EdConwaySky — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) November 26, 2013

Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

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New #IndyRef poll from Hexham-based Panelbase for S Times poll puts Yes 38% No 47%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 I’m still not convinced that NO is a certainty A few days ago I posted that I wasn’t following the gamblers who have been piling onto NO in the Scots IndyRef because I still think there’s a chance that YES might happen. I’m not alone. During the week Alistair Carmichael, the tough talking LD MP who has recently…

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CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

CORRECTION: New YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll finds NO with 24pc lead

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Amongst men in the YouGov/Times IndyRef poll the NO lead is 10% amongst but 38% with women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2013 30% of 2011 SNP supporters say they’ll vote NO There’s a new YouGov Scottish IndyRef poll which has NO 24% ahead. This is broadly in line with what we’ve seen from other pollsters. The gender gap is something that all the pollsters are picking up and clearly YES has a big challenge making inroads with women….

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With with less than 11 month to go before the IndyRef SNP lose the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election to LAB

With with less than 11 month to go before the IndyRef SNP lose the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election to LAB

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@ScottishPol: Victorious Lab candidate Cara Hilton arrives at #Dunfermline count pic.twitter.com/tG4K6nwuvB — Tom Gordon (@ScottishPol) October 25, 2013 LAB GAIN from SNP Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election Lab10,275 SNP 7,402 LD 2,852 CON 2,009 UKIP 908 GRN593 Jacobite 161 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 May 5 2011 looks like a high point for the SNP never to be repeated Two and half years ago in a result that overturned the polling and betting of only a fortnight earlier the SNP swept to power in the…

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Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

Alistair Carmichael at 40-1 is a great bet for next LD leader

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The bruiser who’s been brought in to out-smart Salmond The big surprise in last week’s re-shuffle was the sacking of Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore, and his replacement by the Lib Dem Chief Whip, Alistair Carmichael. Over the next 11 months Carmichael will have an increasingly high-profile role with all the focus on the Scottish referendum. The NO side needed someone who could handle SNP leader Alex Salmond which is why he’s been given the job My view is that Carmichael…

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