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Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

Scottish independence: The electoral mathematics would look a lot less daunting for the Tories

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Time to send George/Dave on lots of trips north? At GE2010 Labour won 41 of the 59 Scottish seats while the Tories came away with one. So if Scotland gets stripped out of the equation then achieving an overall majority because a much easier task for the blues. As a rough and ready way of calculating the impact on the current commons seat projection simply deduct 20 from the LAB majority figure. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the…

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The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

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What’s the point of independence if you have to give up your sovereignty? Two years ago, two-thirds of Scottish voters would have voted for independence if it made them £500 a year better off.  That support dropped to just 21% if they would be left £500 a year down.  We shouldn’t regard those figures as gospel – putting the emphasis so heavily on one factor in the question will probably exaggerate the effect in the results – but there’s no…

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Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

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On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind. Now I’ve had a chance to look at the detail and the above findings stand out – whether voters mght change their mind broken down by which party they supported in the 2011 Holyrood elections. On the voting question LAB voters from 2011 split 28% YES to 72%. LDs were…

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Suddenly independence looks within Salmond’s grasp in new ICM poll

Suddenly independence looks within Salmond’s grasp in new ICM poll

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Time to start betting on YES There’s a new IndyRef poll in Scotland on Sunday from ICM – the pollster that got the 2011 AV referendum most right predicting the final result to within a small fraction of a percent. The figures saw YES up 5% and NO down 5% compared with the last in September. The initial split in the poll was 54-46 but that closed to 53-47 when those sampled were pressed further for a view. Very interestingly…

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LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

LAB hold the Cowdenbeath Holyrood by-election on a 11.25 percent swing from the SNP

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How Salmond was being reported a week before the Cowdenbeath by-election pic.twitter.com/2BnXnBEcAq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2014 LAB 55.8% (+9.3) SNP 28.4% (-13.2) CON 9.4% (+2.5) UKIP 3.0% L Dem 2.1% (-1.8) Victims 0.9% SDA 0.3% The campaign approach that could scupper YES Given that we are now only eight months away from the referendum in Scotland that will determine whether it stays in the UK or not the outcome of every election north of the border is being…

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Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

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Absolutely ruddy shameless pic.twitter.com/u15I1LFjtd — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 7, 2013 Sport is very much part of national identity If you don’t believe that sport and politics are intricately linked just look at the Tweet above from the Mail’s Matt Chorley a few minutes after Andy Murray’s historic victory at Wimbledon in July. That Cameron was pictured against the backcloth the Saltire next to a smiling Alex Salmond was widely seen as a political coup for the SNP leader. Clearly…

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The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

The 2011 Holyrood election: When Scottish Labour moved from a 14pc YouGov lead to being 18pc behind in just 11 weeks

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How polling leads can just evaporate The chart shows the sequence of YouGov Holyrood regional vote shares for LAB and SNP in the eleven weeks running up to the May 2011 elections. The movement is startling and even YouGov’s eve of poll survey, with an SNP lead of just 7% was a long way out. The actual SNP lead was 18%. This is a timely reminder for both GE2015 polling and, of course, the Scottish IndyRef, just nine months away….

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Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

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Atul Hatwal at Labour-Uncut posted a piece yesterday about Labour’s polling, he had one observation, which stood out, and I decided to investigate if it were true, his observation was this, The fundamentals of politics do not change. Voters generally make their electoral choice on the basis of who they feel is best suited to be prime minister and which party they feel is the most economically competent. No opposition has ever won an election while being behind on both economic…

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