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Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

Ipsos-Mori poll on Scottish Independence sees Yes cut No’s lead by 7 per cent

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Ipsos-Mori have published their latest Indyref phone poll.  The fieldwork was after the Euros, from last Wednesday to this Sunday just gone, Ipsos-Mori say The latest poll for STV News shows that ‘Yes’ has gained ground since our last poll in February 2014. Among those certain to vote in the referendum 36% would vote Yes (up by 4 percentage points) while 54% would vote No (down by 3 points) and 10% are undecided (down by 1 point). Both sides will…

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The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

The Scottish IndyRef totally dominates current political betting activity with virtually no interest in the May 22 Euros

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Do punters think that May 22 is not very important? One of the great things about the Betfair exchange is the amount of data that’s available on each of its markets. The chart above is of the total amount of matched bets in £ on the current live UK election markets. As can be seen both the GE 2015 markets, which have been up for nearly four years, attract a lot of interest but not on the scale of the…

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Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

Are we really only five months away from Dave’s resignation?

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Benedict Brogan wrote the other day David Cameron will resign if he loses Scotland. A Prime Minister who allows the break-up of the United Kingdom cannot suffer such a statement of no confidence and continue in office. That much is understood in Downing Street, where a gnawing doubt about the referendum gets worse by the day. The vote takes place in five months this Friday. Angst rather than panic describes the feeling apparent among those involved – but is it…

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The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

The money goes on Scotland voting for independence and YES reaches its highest point on Betfair

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Betfair #IndyRef YES price moves to 24.4% chance – the highest level yet pic.twitter.com/oTG7n9E0zq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2014 YES remains the value bet There’s been quite a rush of money going on YES for the Scottish IndyRef over the past few days so much so that the price on the Betfair exchange is quite a lot tighter. When I recomended three weeks ago that YES was the value bet the price on Betfair represented an 18% chance….

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The way opinion is moving in Scotland the value IndyRef bet is now on YES

The way opinion is moving in Scotland the value IndyRef bet is now on YES

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The betting seems to be lagging behind the polls This morning I made my first serious Scottish IndyRef bets and my money went on YES. This is not a prediction but my assessment of how I think the betting will move in the coming weeks and months. There has been a clear tightening in the polls and if this continues I can see the YES price moving in with NO moving out. The prices, seen in the chart, are quite…

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The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out

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And it’s great news for the Supporters of Yes as No’s lead slumps from 20% to 9% with Survation. As Mike correctly forecast the Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants, as Yes goes up 6% and no goes down 5%, the changes are from the Survation poll carried out at the end of January. (Note the reason why the changes don’t net off to zero is because of rounding) The fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday…

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Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

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Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014   PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…

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All the weekend polls: Round up

All the weekend polls: Round up

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Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef