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Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

Huge blow for Salmond and the Scottish Independence campaign in first full post TV debate referendum poll

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How the Scottish Daily Mail is reporting its Survation #IndyRef poll showing big post-debate boost for NO pic.twitter.com/1oPFhHSidM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 NEW #indyref Survation/Scottish Daily Mail (chg since Aug 3rd) Yes 37% (-3) No 50% (+4) Undec 13% (-1) Ex Undec Yes 43% (-4) No 57% (+4) — Survation (@Survation) August 8, 2014 NO lead moves from 6% to 14% in less than a week A new poll by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail has just been published and sees a…

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The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

The IndyRef YES price touches rock bottom as punters give their verdict on Salmond’s failure to win Tuesday’s debate

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#IndyRef YES sinking fast on the Betfair exchange. Now down to a 13.5% chance pic.twitter.com/ip9HHJQePT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 7, 2014 The time for recovery is getting shorter The betting on the Scottish IndyRef has moved further to NO during the day even though, as yet, we have yet to see the first full post debate referendum poll. The latest price traded on Betfair as I write, (1420) was at the 7.4 level which converts to a 13.5% chance….

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As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

As the Salmond v Darling debate begins – Ipsos-Mori publishes a poll that gives Salmond and yes a boost

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Yes are up 4% and No remains unchanged but since the start of the year No’s lead has fallen from 25 to 14.   Excluding don’t knows UPDATE – POST DEBATE POLLING Victory for Darling A Guardian/ICM poll of viewers has concluded that Darling won the debate by 56pc to 44pc. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5, 2014 Taking all 512 into account, the result was: Alistair Darling 47% Alex Salmond 37% Don’t Know 15% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) August 5,…

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Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

Now the betting money moves to an IndyRef YES – up in a week from 14.2% chance to a 20% one

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1300 on TV #IndyRef debate day. Latest Betfair YES an 18.9% chance pic.twitter.com/QKUfbv86BY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2014 But can Salmond versus Darling change the fundamentals? Make no mistake – this is a massive day in the Scottish IndyRef Campaign. For tonight the First Minister of Scotland takes on the leader of “Better Together” the former UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, in a two hour long live TV debate. So far this is the only such debate that had…

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Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

Salmond needs a convincing win in Tuesday’s big IndyRef TV debate to move the polls to YES

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http://t.co/lBS0VWejYf pic.twitter.com/SZosVsl3uZ Given the static #IndyRef polling the pressure's most on Salmond in Tuesday's TV debate — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 2, 2014 Can he pull off the Holyrood 2011 magic? One of the big moments in Alex Salmond’s career was a big TV debate of Scottish party leaders in late March 2011. At the time the SNP was trailing LAB in the Holyrood polling and it did look as though SLAB was going to return to power. In the debate…

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The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

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Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…

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While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

While Scottish athletes flourish in Glasgow there’s a big polling blow for independence campaigners

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The pollster that last August had YES ahead now has NO 8% lead In August 2013 there was a sensational poll by the Northumberland-based Panelbase that had YES 1% ahead. Although the survey had been commissioned by the SNP the firm is the regular pollster in Scotland for the Sunday Times which added credence to its findings Since then the firm has been part of the group including Survation and ICM that has tended to have YES in better positions….

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NO moves up 4 to take a 14% lead in latest ICM Scottish IndyRef YES poll

NO moves up 4 to take a 14% lead in latest ICM Scottish IndyRef YES poll

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What can YES do to reverse the trend? There’s further polling confirmation this morning that support for a YES vote in the Scottish Independence referendum on September 18th is stalling with the July survey of voters north of the border by ICM for Scotland on Sunday. The trend is in line with the recent YouGov, TNS-BMRB and Survation polls which all reported that the gap was remaining or getting wider. In June ICM had, once you’ve excluded the don’t knows,…

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