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Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

Ipsos-MORI Scotland phone poll has SNP a staggering 34% ahead

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How STV is reporting its sensation @IpsosMORI Scottish phone poll pic.twitter.com/WfTCvlEf7z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2015 More evidence total victory for SNP in Scotland. Our latest poll for @STV News – SNP 54% (+2), Lab 20 (-4), Cons 17% (+5), LD 5% (+1)! — Ben Page (@benatipsos) April 29, 2015 This could be down to “shy unionists” With the ongoing debate about phone polls versus online ones there’s a new Ipsos Scotland survey for STV which has extraordinary…

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Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes

Tonight’s Scottish debate was superb – the question now is whether it will change votes

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With what happens in Scotland likely to play a big part in the May 7th outcome the big event tonight was the STV Scottish leaders’ debate. It was powerful and passionate and on a totally different level from the sterile event last Thursday. The clip above is one of the better bits. For Jim Murphy this was a massive night and I thought he did well -though at times might have been too aggressive. Nicola Sturgeon found the going much…

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Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

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CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015 The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there. The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford…

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Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

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Presumption , as Neil Kinnock will tell you, doesn’t go down well Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday. It got widespread coverage and on the day John Major’s Tories totally defied all polling and were returned with a 7%+ more of the national votes and…

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It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser

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(Pic Via @SNPout) We are likely to see more of this for other types of seats. Tactical voting guides pic.twitter.com/060CcTVFau — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Voting smart might be the new clarion call Charts like the one above, that’s going the rounds on social media, looks set to play a big part at GE15. Scotland clearly is a special situation and you can understand why those that voted NO should be worried about the SNP picking up 40+…

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YouGov Scotland poll see Labour fail to improve

YouGov Scotland poll see Labour fail to improve

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Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland come May. Jim Murphy isn’t turning to be the great hope that Labour were hoping he would be. YouGov Times in Scoltand: Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1 — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) March 12, 2015 Turning this poll into a seat projection the Times says YouGov / Scotland – if uniform swing, SNP would win 48…

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TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

TNS poll sees the SNP extend their lead from 10% to 16%

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Based on UNS, the TNS Scotland poll would see the following seat totals. pic.twitter.com/wFMmMZ3BYr — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 26, 2015 Time appears to be running out for SLAB and Jim Murphy to avoid a shellacking in May. TNS’ second poll this year, brings them into line with all the others bar Panelbase who have substantial leads for the SNP. For those expecting differential turnout in Scotland to have an effect in May, “A majority of voters (61%) say they are…

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Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

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The John Curtice guide to what SNP leads in Scotland mean in terms of seats pic.twitter.com/NNzk0nSU64 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2015 The extraordinary impact of Scotland Looking at the GB electorate as a whole the total of voters who have moved from LAB to the SNP in Scotland amount to fewer than 1% yet the impact in terms of seats can be enormous which is why Scottish polls are so significant. I am sure we are all aware…

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