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Category: Scotland

How much of Scotland and will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

How much of Scotland and will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

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DavidL looks at the prospects and the betting In 2010 Scottish politics look set in some Jurassic age. Not a seat changed hands. Scottish Labour dinosaurs ruled the roost and played on the national stage. In 2015, post referendum, the asteroid struck; an astonishing SNP tsunami, whose power was foreseen by few except Alastair Meeks, swept the SNP to a stunning 56 seats. The old Labour dominance was destroyed forever. What does 2017 hold for us? We have a few…

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Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge

Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge

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Embed from Getty Images Alastair Meeks who accurately predicted the SNP tsunami of 2015 looks at the best Scottish seat bets In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands.  Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then.  2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement. The SNP already have 56 out of the 59 seats that they compete in, so their room for…

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New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gains in Scotland

New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gains in Scotland

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Graphic – The times And the LD could triple their Scottish seats The main General Election polling news overnight has been a YouGov/Times survey of Scotland which suggests that the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than a quarter of a century ago. The Lib Dems could also stage a small recovery tripling the Scottish total to three seats. Labour, which at GE2010, won 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats, is…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

PB/Polling Matters podcast on Brexit, Article 50 polling, Scotland and the return of GfK

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After a momentous day in British politics, Keiran and Rob discuss public opinion on Brexit and  Keiran looks at Scotland’s future with Ipsos Mori Scotland Research Director Mark Diffley. Finally, Keiran talks more about the new GfK political polling that has Corbyn’s approval rating among Brits being as weak as Donald Trump’s. More on that polling (including methodology and data tables here). The segment on Scotland dominates this week’s episode and is a particularly wide ranging discussion including new information on…

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Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

Don’t get complacent – Scotland’s future in the Union is hanging by a thread.

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Embed from Getty Images The case for Scottish Independence is full of holes writes Keiran Pedley but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Since Nicola Sturgeon’s bombshell speech last week, where she indicated her intention to ask for a second referendum on Scottish Independence, the conventional wisdom appears to have been on something of a journey. The original reaction was one of panic. This was it. Just as we all feared, Scotland was heading for Independence as a consequence of…

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As we edge towards the enactment of the A50 Bill Nicola has just made Theresa’s task harder

As we edge towards the enactment of the A50 Bill Nicola has just made Theresa’s task harder

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The political price of hard brexit could be a smaller UK TMay’s reaction to Sturgeon’s InyRef2 announcement was that the Scottish FM and SNP leader was “playing politics” – a term I generally conclude to mean that what’s been said has been highly effective. Certainly the suggestions that TMay might defer invoking A50 until the end of the month suggests there’s a need to look again at her strategy and the rhetoric she will deploy when the formal process of…

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The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

The opening IndyRef2 odds make it odds-on that it’ll take place and odds-on that Scotland will vote YES

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Lots of activity from the bookies following Nicola Stugeon’s announcement that the SNP is going for a second IndyRef because of the vastly changed circumstances as a result of BREXIT. The Ladbrokes betting: Ladbrokes latest betting Next Independence Referendum 4/6 Before end 2020 11/10 Not before end of 2020 Year of next Independence Referendum 25 2017 7/4 2018 5/2 2019 10 2020 11/10 2021 or later Result of next Referendum 8/11 YES 11/10 NO (If held before end 2020) WILLIAM HILL…. SECOND…

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Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

Opinium: Most of those polled say 2nd Scottish IndyRef ‘not justified’ but only one in three sure of a no vote if one happens

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With Scottish Independence back on the agenda and Northern Ireland heading for crisis, Keiran Pedley argues that London is far too complacent about the future of the Union. Following last week’s poll by Ipsos Mori showing an apparent spike in support for Scottish Independence and Jeremy Corbyn’s comments this weekend suggesting that he is ‘fine’ with a second referendum, it feels like a good time to unveil the latest Polling Matters / Opinium survey. Our latest survey focused on UK…

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